Based on Adobe Analytics data, Adobe predicts that U.S. online sales will increase 14.8 percent, totaling $124.1 billion, while offline retail spending is expected to increase a modest 2.7 percent*. Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest- and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year with $7.7 billion in sales, a 17.6 percent increase year over year (YoY). Online sales between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday are expected to drive more revenue than an average full day in 2018, with conversions hitting the highest rate of the year, 7.3 percent, during these golden hours of online retail, Adobe said in a press statement.
Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 16.5 percent, generating $3.3 billion. Nearly one out of five dollars this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating $23.4 billion or 19 percent of total online sales. One extra calendar day between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day will give retailers a $284 million boost in sales. A record number of days will hit new revenue milestones, with 36 days surpassing $2 billion compared to just 22 days in 2017. Most anticipated gifts include 4K TVs, retro video games and consoles, as well as toys like Pomsies, Grumblies and Fortnite Monopoly.
"As online shopping surges with another record-breaking holiday season, the retailers with compelling websites coupled with physical store locations will have the advantage," said John Copeland, head of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. "Many shoppers want to interact with retailers' products and the brand in-store, and the ability to pick up online orders in-store within a matter of hours can't be underestimated."
Retailers with online and physical footprints are expected to see 28 percent higher conversion online in comparison to retailers lacking a traditional storefront. Adobe Analytics data anticipates shoppers increasingly buying online and picking up items in-store (BOPIS) during the holiday season. BOPIS has increased 119 percent since January 2018 across all retailers and over 250 percent for large retailers**. A survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers shows nearly half (47 percent) expect to browse in-store for a product they intend to buy online later, jumping to 58 percent among millennials.
Additional predictions include:
Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe's artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, to identify retail insights from trillions of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics and Magento Commerce Cloud, part of Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe Analytics analyzes one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 55 million SKUs and 80 of the largest 100 U.S. web retailers*** – more than any other technology company.
Only Adobe's analysis spans large, medium and small retailers across over 50 merchandise categories, powered by Magento Commerce Cloud, to provide the industry's most accurate view of online shopping in the U.S. Adobe Experience Cloud manages more than 200 trillion data transactions annually. Companion research is based on a survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers in October 2018.