Government, armed groups set sight to sign nationwide ceasefire accord in April or May

The draft text of a historic nationwide ceasefire agreement was reached on Monday. It was finalised on Tuesday and then taken to the leaders of the different rebel groups for ratification, said Hla Maung Shwe, a senior adviser from the Myanmar Peace Centre, a group set up by the government to facilitate the peace process.

Reuters quoted Hla Maung Shwe as saying “If everything goes well, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement will be signed by top leaders of ethnic armed groups in Nay Pyi Taw in May.”

According to DPA report, Naing Han Tha, leader of rebels' Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, said that the accord may be signed after the water festival next month.

"This is the first step to signing a nationwide ceasefire agreement and to move to political dialogue," said Naing Han Tha, who led the ethnic group negotiators, adding that the long-elusive deal would only be signed after a conference of the rebel groups.

The latest round of peace talks between NCCT and the government's Union Peacemaking Working Committee in Yangon began on March 17.

The government and the rebel groups, many of them fighting for increased autonomy for ethnic minorities, have held seven rounds of talks to negotiate the agreement since 2013. The government had targeted reaching a deal before a general election expected to take place in November this year.

The signature has been delayed for more than a year amid ongoing clashes in Myanmar's eastern and northern states, to say nothing of low levels of trust between the government and the rebels.

But negotiators said they had managed to find mutually acceptable ground on most points, adding that some more difficult sections were excised from the agreement. 

"Now we have an understanding," said Hla Maung Swe, one of the senior government negotiators, at a press conference.

"There is nothing left to discuss. From our side, we are ready to sign," he added. 

Myanmar has been racked by unrest since independence from Britain in 1948 as insurgencies flared among minority groups demanding greater autonomy. Conflicts were fuelled in part by tussles over the country's rich resources.

The government has managed to sign separate ceasefire agreements with 14 out of the 16 ethnic rebel groups under President Thein Sein, the ex-general who came to power in 2011 and is seen by many as a reformist. According to the government's proposal, ethnic rebels would have to enter into a political dialogue after the NCA is signed. 

The new agreement would supersede individual deals the government has made with several armed groups and put into place a comprehensive, nationwide ceasefire. 

"Now we have an all-inclusive draft for NCA, and we hope the signing will be in late April," said Hla Maung Shwe of MPC.

However, even after the NCA signing, there is still a strong likelihood of clashes on the ground as there are still many things that need to be solved, he said. 

"This is just a commitment to pursue the sustainable peace. Only political ways can solve these problems," he said. 

The breakthrough comes as heavy fighting continues between the government forces and Kokang ethnic rebels in northern Kachin state, members of which are not party to the agreement. Once the leaders from both sides approve the draft, it will be sent to the legislature for final approval. No changes to the draft are allowed during this process. 

Sporadic resurgences of violence and complaints about the military's role in the complex process have hampered progress. The Army’s role now attracts international attention. David Richards, former defence chief of the United Kingdom, recently had a talk with Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. 

President Thein Sein declared a state of emergency in a region near the Chinese border in February after fierce fighting between the army and the Kokang ethnic Chinese rebel group. That was the first time military rule had been invoked under Myanmar's 2008 constitution. The Kokang are not part of the peace process. 

 The United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an umbrella organisation representing ethnic armed groups, has said that a meaningful ceasefire cannot be agreed while Myanmar's military continues offensives against ethnic groups.

 "As the escalation of war not only on the ground but also from the air recurred, the current negotiation is to no avail," the UNFC said in a March 28 statement.

 The United States and other foreign governments that have supported reforms in Myanmar have repeatedly called for progress on the ceasefire.