Smooth transition may spur a lifting of US sanctions

While highlighting encouraging signs from Sunday’s poll, however, Washington remained cautious and said it would watch for the democratic process to move forward before lifting more sanctions, which still target more than 100 individuals and businesses and limit US investment in Myanmar.

The ruling party in Myanmar conceded defeat yesterday while the opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi appeared on course for a landslide victory that could ensure it forms the next government.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the election process was encouraging and “represents an important step in Burma’s democratic process”. “What is clear is that for the first time ever, millions of people in Burma voted in a meaningful, competitive election,” he said.

He said there were still flaws in the political system – including a constitutional provision barring Suu Kyi from becoming president- and it was too soon to discuss US policy changes.

Daniel Russel, US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said preliminary indications were that the elections went “quite smoothly”, but a “credible” transition was now needed. After 50 years of military dictatorship, “this was a hell of a step forward for the democratic process”, Russel said, but added: “Now comes the hard part.”

He said it was too early to evaluate the overall conduct of the voting, or say whether it could lead to a lifting of remaining US sanctions.

“The further the process of reform moves, the more credible and respectable the political process is, the greater the support and the lower the hurdles for the US government, and I suspect other governments, to actively support a new Burmese government, including through adjustments to our policies.”

Peter Kucik, a former senior sanctions adviser at the US Treasury, said that if Myanmar’s transition proceeded smoothly, US officials would likely try to expedite the delisting process and issue more legal workarounds to get US business flowing.

“They are going to have to make sure people can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

Jose Fernandez, a former assistant secretary of state and the architect of US sanctions policy on Myanmar, said military officials and their allies would have the opportunity to get off the blacklist “as a reward for democratic behaviour”.