Thailand could play key role in Southeast Asia – if it steps up and sets a democratic example 

“Given the need to financially rely on China, Asean countries have difficulties coping with this eastern major power, as they need to pursue a multilateral balancing policy as well as Asean centrality. While Asean countries, as small and middle powers, try to keep multilateral linkages with the great powers, they also have to keep relations healthy at the bilateral level and Asean level as well. 
“Some Cambodians I interviewed were very cautious in pursuing this balancing policy along with the interdependence of Chinese finance. One port in Cambodia was built using a Japanese system to avoid over-dependence on China, decreasing political risks. The port, however, was surrounded by Chinese companies. How should we interpret such a situation?
“Still, it’s very hard for China to take a coercive approach to Asean countries, who seem to understand Chinese soft-power strategies and even use them to increase their own interests. From their experiences of the colonial and imperialist eras, Asean countries don’t want to lose their independence. Thailand, while not having been colonised, also had a hard time back then and wants to maintain its independence now. 
Balance of power
“Looking at the US policies towards  Southeast Asia, US President Donald Trump’s administration seems not to have a critical interest in the region. The State Department, meanwhile, continues its job to provide support to the regional countries while keeping its focus on human rights and democracy development in the region.
“While they strongly criticise what is happening against the Rohingya in Myanmar, the Hun Sen regime in Cambodia and Thailand’s undemocratic situation, it should also be remembered that each country has its own political sensitivities. 
“Some of the criticisms also seem to lack an understanding of the complexities of situations, which could lead to more anti-US sentiment. This won’t be comfortable for Southeast Asia in the future. From my point of view, the US engagement with Southeast Asia has had big problems since Barack Obama’s administration and things haven’t changed. The problem is that US criticism on human rights used to be effective but it is now no longer so. Now we have to take the orientation towards independence and sovereignty into account. The more the US criticises, the stronger the tendency for the criticised countries to shift towards China. So, concerns for rights and democracy in the region must take into account increased sensitivity as well as an appropriate approach to prevent them from rushing to China.
“While Japan used to be dominant in Southeast Asia, especially in terms of economic roles, I don’t think Japan can equally deal with China in this sense. The only thing we can do, especially on the South China Sea issue, is to persuade China to take a direction more compatible with the international legal order. 
“China has a dual approach at different levels in the international arena. While China tries to show support to international order at the global level, its approach to neighbouring countries, including Japan, is different. Sometimes, they are more assertive, expansive and proactive. Changing China’s approach is a big challenge but at the least we should not accept its behaviour in the South China Sea.

Asean centrality
“Singapore, as this year’s Asean chair, has expressed an interest in working on a rules-based international maritime order. While not a claimant, it thinks about the negative impact of China’s behaviour over the contentious sea. Its challenge this year, indeed, would be how to manage to produce an effective and binding Code of Conduct. Thailand was traditionally an important player in Asean as one of its cofounders. 
“Since the 2000s, however, Thailand’s role in Asean has become less visible, partly from a foreign policy vision shift during Thaksin Shinawatra’s administration, which turned away from the group. First of all, to make an impact as a key Asean player again, Thailand – when it chairs the group next year – should regain its political stability in domestic policies. An election is also the first step to retake such a political asset.