Monday, January 20, 2020

China's economy to rebound in first half of 2020: JP Morgan economist

Dec 09. 2019
A bird's-eye view of the central business district in Beijing. [Photo/VCG]
A bird's-eye view of the central business district in Beijing. [Photo/VCG]
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By China Daily/ANN

BEIJING - China's key economic barometers are likely to rebound in the first half of 2020, JP Morgan's Chief China Economist Zhu Haibin has said, advising against market pessimism.

Attributing China's downward economic pressure in 2019 mainly to cyclical factors, Zhu said manufacturing and infrastructure investment will possibly start driving up the economy next year.

The manufacturing sector is looking at more investment amid the estimated recovery of the producer price index that may boost profit for companies in the industry, said Zhu.

The growth rate for infrastructure investment is expected to climb to between 5 to 6 percent next year as the government is purposing the issuance of special local government bonds toward financing for infrastructure, according to Zhu.

While consumption may be partially dented by consumer price index (CPI) hikes due to soaring pork prices in the coming year, Zhu said the ascending CPI is merely structural and is unlikely to trigger shifts in monetary policy.

Instead, major policy undertakings next year to stabilize consumption may be subsidizing middle-to-low income households and restoring hog production, Zhu suggested.

 

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