Shippers doubt 15% growth target
Shipments may not reach the government's 15-per-cent expansion target to US$258 billion (Bt8.9 trillion) next year, as many industries face difficulty recovering after the floods, while exports to Asean will also feel impacts from the European Union debt
“Although Thailand has shifted its focus more towards Asean and other Asian countries such as China, the impact of the EU economic downturn will be larger than was expected earlier and will cause trouble for Thailand’s exports to those countries, as they also rely on export to the EU countries,” said TNSC chairman Paiboon Ponsuwanna.
The slowdown of the recoveries in United States and Japan, which are also major export markets for Thailand, China and Asean countries, will also cause global trade to be sluggish in the new year.
The impacts from this year’s inundation will also drag down export growth in many industries in the next three to six months, Paiboon said. This would result in a shrinkage in exports in the first and second quarters.
Moreover, the baht’s appreciation will also obstruct exports, while higher production costs from rising labour wages will reduce Thailand’s competitiveness, he said.
Vallop Vitanakorn, the council’s vice chairman, said the baht was expected to be stronger next year against the US dollar. He said that since Thailand has signed a 70-billion-yuan (Bt345-billion) swap agreement with China to strengthen trade and investment between the two nations, more Thai exporters would trade in yuan to reduce transaction costs.
For instance, as more than 35 per cent of garments are imported from China, Vallop said these would be directly traded in yuan, reducing importers’ reliance on the greenback in coming years.
A study by the TNSC, Chulalongkorn University and the International Institute for Trade and Development showed that the indices for export value and volume dropped significantly in November because of the floods. The export performance index dropped by 19.1 per cent year on year, compared with a 3.1-per-cent drop in October.
Industries that have faced serious reductions in terms of export value and volume included jewellery, automobiles and parts, printing and paper, medical products, and electrical appliances.
Export of canned fish also dropped significantly last month as many manufacturers suspended operations during flooding.
