NESDB backs its figures
Play
Agency chief admits that inventory may not reflect economic activity
Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, has rebutted recent remarks by Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul, pointing out why the agency’s economic-growth figure is in his view bound to be more accurate than that of the central bank.
“Any forecast growth of gross domestic product is less reliable when compared with actual data compiled by the NESDB,” he said in response to Prasarn’s questioning of the state planning agency’s figure.
The BOT had projected that GDP would expand by 6-8 per cent year on year in the first quarter, but the actual outcome calculated by the NESDB revealed growth at just 5.3 per cent.
The BOT had also forecast private consumption expanding at 5.8 per cent in the period, but the actual growth rate calculated by the NESDB was 4.2 per cent, Arkhom said in reference to the central bank chief’s remark about lower-than-expected growth in household consumption.
Meanwhile, the Private Consumption Index calculated by the central bank pointed to an expansion of 3.7 per cent, while the NESDB found that private expenditure had risen by 4.2 per cent in the first quarter, Arkhom said, adding, “Our figure is actually higher than the central bank’s consumption index.”
Although consumer credit expanded 14.8 per cent in the first quarter, there was in fact a deceleration, as new credit was worth only Bt124.11 billion, compared with Bt229.39 billion in the same period last year, he said.
Moreover, the income of rice, rubber and palm farmers dropped by Bt16.68 billion, leading to lower consumption expansion, he added.
Meanwhile, significantly higher household spending in the first quarter of last year, after the devastating floods of late 2011, meant that consumers spent relatively less in the first three months of this year.
However, the NESDB chief acknowledged that inventory might not reflect actual economic activity. For example, the government did not reveal the level of its rice stocks, while the Industry Ministry could not examine all factory inventories across the country.
The NESDB also plans by the end of this year to change the base year for the calculation of GDP from 1988 to one year before the year in question, he said.
Arkhom said the official think-tank’s arrangements for calculating Thailand’s GDP were in line with the National Income Account under the United Nations System of National Accounting, which is widely used across the world.
Consistent quality assessment is undertaken by international statistics organisations on quarterly and yearly bases, he added.
Arkhom said the NESDB had also joined the International Monetary Fund’s two projects focusing on the internationally standardised dissemination of reliable information.
However, economic data from all agencies are used in processing the actual GDP and economic indicators, including manufacturing and people’s expenses, and these may sometimes differ from the central bank’s methodology, he acknowledged.
