KResearch predicts slower bank loan growth
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Bank loan growth is expected at a slower rate in the latter half of this year, due to the end of stimulus measures at home as well as economic uncertainties of major trading partners like China and other Asean countries.
According to the Kasikorn Research Centre such risks could affect lending.
The centre said loan growth's likely slowdown is in line with some commercial banks which revised down their lending after an expected slowdown in the Thai economy.
The house expected that domestic demands will then grow at a normal pace in the latter half, particularly when all vehicles bought under the firstcar buyer scheme are transferred.
The scheme spiked demand for auto loans last year and some has been transferred to the first half of this year.
KResearch also foresees a need for commercial banks to exercise extra caution in liquidity management to deal with volatility in the global money markets.
There has been high uncertainty for capital movement after the US Federal Reserve said stimulus might be reduced later this year as the US economy recovers. As a result Thai commercial banks have been more cautious in liquidity management with close monitoring, the research centre said.
KResearch cautioned that a close watch should be kept on Thai commercial banks’ demand for fund mobilisation in the next periods.
It expects Thai credit growth at more than 10 per cent in 2013, thanks to an acceleration in the government budget disbursement from the late 2012 budget year to early 2013 budget year, disbursement in investment projects, and low interest rates.
At the end of May 2013, total outstanding loans of 14 commercial banks grew 12.23 per cent yearonyear to Bt88.8 trillion or Bt70.8 billion from a month earlier. April's growth figure was 12.47 per cent from the same period last year.
May's deposits totalled Bt9.63 trillion, up Bt118 billion from the end of the previous month.
Gross loans to deposits and borrowings declined to 88.31 per cent in May from 88.87 per cent a month earlier.
