GDP, Export growth forecasts expected to be trimmed

Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, BOT deputy governor for monetary stability, said there could be downward revision of the earlier growth forecasts of 5.1 per cent for gross domestic product and 7.5 per cent for exports.
If foreign capital continues to leave Thailand in the second half of this year when Mitsubishi UFJ carries out the tender offer for BAY shares, the deal could act as a counter to the capital outflows, she said.
However, it is difficult to see the direction of capital movement, which depends mainly on the economic situations in the United States and China as well as Thailand, she said.
If the US sees a strong economic recovery and ends its bond purchases, and China and Thailand have economic slowdowns, foreign capital is expected to flee Thailand, she said.
Amid the global market volatility, six major Thai gold traders anticipated gold prices to rise to a range of US$1,300-$1,400 an ounce in the latter half of this year based on the expectation that there would be no stemming of US bond purchases, according to a Gold Research Centre survey.
Classic Gold projects the average gold price at $1,350 an ounce for the second half, while GT Wealth Management estimates a $1,300 average. Gold Jin Hu Hang expects $1,400 an ounce.
MTS Gold expects an average gold price of $1,325 an ounce, and YLG & Bullion forecasts $1,350, as does Ausiris.
Risks to the gold price in the latter half are the US moves on its quantitative easing programme, the situation with the baht, gold sales by big funds, an economic slowdown in Asia, and market speculation.
Jitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Gold Traders Association, said the gold price could see an uptrend in the latter half of the year on expectation of touching $1,500 an ounce, given the shortage of gold in the world market.
“Gold prices are likely to see short-term fluctuation, but are expected to go up to $1,500 an ounce after steep drops in profit-taking,” he said.
The Gold Price Sentiment Index this month was below the average of 50 points, according to a survey by the Gold Research Centre, reflecting the conviction that gold prices may not easily bounce back. July’s figure is expected to stay at 33.77 points.
The baht could have the highest impact on gold prices this month, followed by tapering off of the US monetary stimulus and the state of the US dollar.
Phusit Wonglorsaichon, director of the Gold Research Centre, said gold prices were expected to be in a range of $1,150-$1,400 an ounce and the domestic gold price in a range of Bt17,000-Bt20,500 per baht weight this month.