'Bright outlook' for Thai economy 2015, meet hears
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The outlook for the Thai economy next year is bright, supported by both domestic and external drivers, including government spending, Board of Investment incentives, private investment and domestic consumption, all of which had been slowing down for the p
Among external sectors, exports and tourism are expected to recover, he said at a seminar on “Global Economy: From Recovery to Sustainability”, attended by more than 500 corporate executives and small and medium-sized enterprises representatives yesterday.
The seminar provided insights on the direction of the Thai economy
next year, currency movement, interest rates (both domestic and international), as well as key domestic and external risks. The bank’s clients were advised to take these factors into consideration when formulating their 2015 business plans.
However, imbalance in the global economic recovery will pose a big risk. With the continued economic recovery in the US, the Federal Reserve this week ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme, and is expected to raise the policy rate by mid-2015.
Japan and the euro zone, on the other hand, may still need to continue their stimulus programmes and monetary policy easing to avert a recession, he said.
He added that these different policies would result in both currency volatility and risks of capital outflows. The baht may come under pressure due to the dollar’s appreciation.
For 2015, Krungsri Research predicts the baht exchange rate in the range of Bt 33 to Bt33.50 to the dollar, depreciating by 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent from this year.
“We like to see the baht moves in line with our regional partners, and not be too volatile. This will help Thai entrepreneurs manage and mitigate risks of currency fluctuation through financial derivative products,” he added.
