Year of greater volatility: CIMB
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Exporters and importers are urged to hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, as the Thai baht may rise to Bt30 per US dollar or fall to as much as Bt40 during this year, said CIMB Thai Bank economist.
Amornthep Chawla, vice president and chief economost of the bank, noted that the US$/Bt exchange rate this year would be more volatile than 2015.
"There is a possibility that the baht could weaken or appreciate against US dollar. It'll be tough for both exporters and importers," he said.
In the business-as-usual basis, CIMB expected the Thai baht to end the year at Bt38 per dollar.
The Thai baht could spike to Bt30 if oil prices further nosedive. Inflation would then be kept at a very low level and bars an increase in product prices. The appreciation is anticipated also if the US makes a U-turn by lowering rates again.
Meanwhile, the baht could weaken to Bt40 if Chinese yuan is weakened sharply while Thailand's exports further slide for fourth year in a row. The possibility will be high also if oil prices spike due to tension in the Middle East.
