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Exports to grow by 3.7% this year, TMB Analytics forecasts

May 19. 2017
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By The Nation

TMB Analytics expects the value of Thai exports to grow by 3.7 per cent this year, thanks to improving prices of consumer products and oil, as well as recovery in the global economy.

It said Thai exports showed clear signs of recovery after two consecutive years of shrinkage, 0.4 per cent 2014 and 5.7 per cent in 2015, before growing slightly in 2016. During the first quarter of 2017, export value surged by 4.9 per cent, recording spectacular growth of 9.2 per cent in March, reaching US$20.88 billion (Bt719 billion).

“The growth in export value was from almost every product category and market,” it said. "It is to be followed whether the recovery will be short-term or not, along with the direction of Thai exports in the future.”

According to TMB Analytics, export value should continue recovering on increases in both prices and volume. 

“Judging from the last three years, prices of export products usually move with global oil prices, particularly products that are oil-related. For each 1 per cent change in the oil price, there’s a 0.11-per-cent change in export-product prices.”

Recovery of the global economy will boost Thai exports, it said, especially in volume terms. 

“The IMF [International Monetary Fund] expects the global economy to grow by 3.5 per cent this year, beating the 3.2 per cent in 2016, while the World Trade Outlook Indicator says that global trade has been accelerating since the last quarter of 2016 and will continue to do so in 2017. 

“This corresponds with the export value from this region, whic has been contracting since the end of 2014. During the first quarter of this year, Asean 5 exports grew by as much as 14 per cent.”

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