Swinging to a rest
This week, the SET Index is expected to swing to a rest after continuous rises this month. We expect the index to move in a range of 1,6651,680 points.
Related issues that should be closely monitored include the dot plot from the June 1819 FOMC meeting, the USChina trade war negotiations at the G20 meeting and the Opec meeting later this month for indication of crude price direction in the second half.
We expect global crude prices to swing down as Russia has not yet decided on an extension of its current production capacity for this year. We see market distortion from Opec’s capacity reduction as not sustainable, taking into consideration the steady production level in the US.
Local political conflicts have escalated over ministerial posts, while we expect to see the launch of urgent economic stimulus measures.
Investors should keep an eye on the transport, energy, finance, commerce and agricultural ministries.
The SET Index is forecast to hover between 1,5901,680 points this month. Shortterm investors may take profit at 1,6501,680 points while medium to long term investors may accumulate stocks.— Passakorn Linmaneechote, deputy MD/research, Kasikorn Securities
