Negative factors drag down GDP growth of farm sector
GDP of the agriculture sector is expected to grow a mere 0.5 per cent this year and forecast to expand by 2 to 3 per cent next year, said the Office of Agricultural Economics which also expressed concerns on the strength of the Thai currency.
“The growth rate is much lower than the previous projection of 3 to 4 per cent, mainly due to the damages from drought and floods this year,” said Rapibhat Chandarasrivongs, secretary general.
Drought has impacted the production of rice, sugarcane and pineapples, he said, while the North and Northeast regions were affected by flooding in August and September.
Thai farm sector has been hit by the global economic slowdown. However, cool weather in the last quarter is conducive to production of Durian, mangosteen and rambutan.
Livestock farming is faring better with efficient disease-prevention measures as African swine flu spread in neighbouring countries.
He said GDP of the farm sector is expected to grow 2 to 3 per cent next year, in view of government policy and better global economic conditions.
The biggest threat to the farm sector lies in the Thai currency surging through the Bt30 per dollar threshold, making Thai produce more expensive than its competitors'.
The department is worked closely with the Bank of Thailand to ensure exchange rate of baht would not rise over Bt30 per dollar, he said.
Thailand will continue to suffer from drought next year with lower water supply.
Horticulture is forecast to expand 0.7 per cent next year with higher production of fruits, palm oil and rubber sheet. Cassava production will also increase as plantation areas expand.
Rice production is expected to drop due to drought while maize production will be hampered by worms. Sugarcane production will decrease while pineapple farmers are expected to reduce plantings due to falling price.
Livestock will grow 0.8 per cent, due to higher exports to China and South Korea where swine farmers are reeling from the epidemic of African swine flu. Production of pork is expected to decrease amid falling prices. Egg production will also fall due to lower import of chicken breeders.
The fishery sector is expected to contract by 1.3 per cent. Agri-related services are forecast to expand 2.7 per cent as farmers employ more machinery to replace labour.
Production of wood is expected to grow by 2 per cent as demand for Eucalyptus wood rises.
