Winners and losers amid the coronavirus outbreak

Outbreak of the new coronavirus, with its epicentre in Wuhan city of Hubei Province of China, is now a global issue after the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the epidemic a public health emergency with the situation yet to be contained, citing increasing cases of infection and deaths. 

Thailand is facing a decline in the numbers of tourists from China and other countries. The Fiscal Policy Office estimated that the incident might lower Thailand’s GPD to 2.8 per cent in 2020 from the previous forecast of 3.3 per cent.

Centre for International Trade Studies at The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said if China was able to contain the virus within the first three months, Thailand's export to China would decrease by Bt9.7 billion or 1.03 per cent. But in the event the crisis lasting for more than three monrths, Bt19.84 billion will be lost in exports to China.

However, vice chairman of Federation of Thai Industries Montri Mahaplerkpong, said some businesses have benefited from the crisis with wood-pulp and paper makers receiving huge export orders for raw materials to be used in the production of face masks in China. Others include manufacturers of medical items such as syringes, hand wash gel, germ protection suit, and related equipment. 
Meanwhile, the rubber product industry has increased the productivity of anti-infection gloves for exports to hospitals in China.
“With the restrictions on movement having an impact on the food delivery service in Wuhan, Thai food exporters are stepping up exports to the city. Food exports from Thailand could reach the city in a short time and they can be stored for up to a month. Besides, Thai food are known for safety and long expiry dates, especially ready-to-eat food, canned food, instant food, and frozen food,” Montri said.
However, many sectors and businesses have been hit hard, including shops in areas popular with tourists. Thai auto-part suppliers were also affected by the closures of electric-car assembling factories in Wuhan. 
Visit Limlurcha, vice-president of Thai National Shippers' Council, said the lock down of Wuhan had affected the supply of necessities in the city. “This is a chance to export processed fruit, canned food, medicine and medical supplies to China”. He believed that if the crisis ended in three months, the economic situation in China will soon recover. 
Dr Luckchai Kittipol, Honourable President of Thai Rubber Association, said the coronavirus crisis had pushed up the exports of rubber gloves and masks to China. However, the price of the rubber is on a downtrend, the price of rubber smoked sheets 3 (RSS 3) for future contracts with Japan and Singapore decreased by almost Bt10 per kilogram last week, leading to a drop of Bt2 per kilogram in overall rubber price in Thailand.