Virus’ cost to Thailand likely Bt176 bn, says ADB

In an analysis covering all countries and territories in the region, the ADB cited sharp declines in domestic demand, less tourism and business travel, weakened trade and production linkages and supply disruptions, as well as the enormous outlay on health treatment.

“The magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain,” it said, adding that a “range of scenarios” had to be considered. 
“The range of scenarios [the ADB] explored suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion, or 0.1-0.4 per cent of global GDP, with a moderate-case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP.” 
The Thai economy is likely to lose $5.6 billion – 1.11 per cent of GDP – in a moderate case, it said.
Two-thirds of the outbreak’s impact falls on China, the ADB said, but the whole region will share the pain of “a sharp but temporary decline in domestic consumption and possibly investment, if the outbreak affects views on future business activity”.
There will be “declines in tourism and business travel, spill-overs of weaker demand to other sectors and economies through trade and production linkages, supply-side disruptions to production and trade, and effects on health such as increased disease and mortality as well as shifts in health care spending.
“ADB developing members that will be significantly affected are those with strong trade and production linkages with China. In addition to tourism-dependent economies, other developing economies such as Hong Kong, Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei and Vietnam will be materially affected.