Bank analysts see tourism losing Bt278 bn

Senior vice president Phacharaphot Nuntramas said the number of foreign visitors to Bangkok would likely drop by three million in the first half of 2020, and to Phuket and Chiang Mai by one million each. 
The slowdown in arrivals will cost hotels, restaurants and shopping centres Bt200 billion, he said, while overseas exports will contract by 1.9 per cent.
“The effect of Covid-19 on the global economy is more serious than expected, with major countries like China, the US, Japan and South Korea facing the same problem and having no clear solutions,” Phacharaphot said.
“If it takes six months before we see any improvement, the Thai economy might expand by only 1.5 per cent, which is not good for investors, and the economic recession might carry on since the oil price has also drastically dropped.
“Plus, Thailand still has to face the drought crisis, which might cost the agricultural sector Bt58 billion, a slowdown in the Southeast Asian economy as a whole, global trade conflicts, and Vietnam’s free-trade agreement with the European Union, which could post an obstacle for Thai textile exports.”
Mana Nimitvanich, first vice president at Krung Thai Bank, said the government should speed disbursement of the long-delayed Bt2.4 trillion budget for fiscal 2020.
If it at least 67 per cent of it can be disbursed – more than the average of the last five years – and further economic stimulus measures are introduced, particularly for tourism, after the Covid-19 situation is resolved, it would boost confidence in the private sector for the second and third quarters, he said.
“Krungthai Compass believes there is a possibility that the Bank of Thailand will lower the interest rate to 0.75 per cent,” Mana said. “The baht weakened in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, but will be stronger with the recovery of tourism and exports. 
“The current account is expected to be highly overbalanced due to the lower price of oil.”