By The Nation
This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.
In the best-case scenario, the sector is expected to generate Bt1.52 trillion revenue next year, far lower than the Bt3.93 trillion predicted before the outbreak began.
If the sector quickly recovers early next year or in the second quarter next year, it will have revenue of Bt1.525 trillion of which Bt977 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. The number of tourist arrivals is expected to reach 20.5 million next year.
If the sector recovers to a medium level during middle of next year or late in the third quarter, it is expected to generate revenue of Bt1.108 trillion of which Bt617.5 billion will be from foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourists is expected to reach 12.5 million.
If recovery happens late next year, the sector is estimated to post revenue of between Bt675.7 billion to Bt754.8 billion of which Bt296 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourists is estimated at 6.14 million.