Thai export growth slowing under Russia-Ukraine fallout: TNSC

Thailand's export value in the first two months this year was US$44.74 billion, up 12.2 per cent year on year, The TNSC said on Saturday.

Exports were worth $21.25 billion in January and $23.48 billion in February, up 8 per cent and 16.2 per cent, respectively.

TNSC chairman Chaichan Charoensuk said January-February exports expanded strongly on orders made before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

He expects Thai exports in the first quarter to expand around 5 per cent year on year before falling below 5 per cent in the second quarter under pressure from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resulting rise in production costs.

"The price of Thai export goods has increased by 5-10 per cent," he added.

The TNSC, trade associations and industries concluded on March 25 that the war would drag on and continue to drive up prices of raw materials, Chaichan said.

Russia's ban on exports of crude oil, natural gas and rare minerals, as well as economic sanctions on Moscow, were affecting many industries, he added.

However, five major Thai exports – rubber and rubber products, foods, cassava products, sugar and rice – would help lift revenue amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

"Meanwhile, tyres, textiles, auto parts, plastic beads and electrical appliances will also boost Thai exports," he added.

Chaichan warned, however, that the microchip shortage in the automobile industry should be tackled urgently as Russia's ban on exports of chip materials would exacerbate the issue.

TNSC cut its forecast for Thailand's export growth this year from 5-8 per cent to no more than 5 per cent. Thai exports would drop further if the Russia-Ukraine war drags on and sparks further inflation and contraction of the global economy, Chaichan added.