NESDC forecasts 3.5 to 4.5 per cent GDP expansion in 2022
Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 could expand to 3.5 to 4.5 per cent thanks to the improving Covid-19 situation and gradual recovery of tourism and exports, said the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) on Monday.
“The GDP in third quarter of this year has contracted 0.3 per cent, comparing to the 7.6 per cent expansion in same period of the previous year,” said NESDC secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan. “After seasonal adjustment, the GDP in third quarter of 2021 has contracted from the second quarter by 1.1 per cent.”
Thailand’s economy in nine months of 2021 has expanded at 1.3 per cent, he added.
“We estimated that overall GDP of 2021 will expand by 1.2 per cent comparing to 6.1 per cent contraction in 2020,” said Danucha. “The inflation rate will be at 1.2 per cent while current account deficit will be at 2.5 per cent of GDP, comparing to 4 per cent of GDP in the previous year.”
The NESDC forecast five factors that will drive 2022 GDP to expand at 3.5 to 4.5 per cent. They are:
- Increasing domestic demand and manufacturing capacity following the improving Covid-19 situation and increasing vaccination rate.
- Slow but gradual recovery of international tourism following the government’s country reopening scheme.
- Expansion of exports.
- Disbursement of government’s budget to various projects.
- Low level base of expansion.
“Exports in 2022 are estimated to expand by 4.9 per cent while the domestic consumption and private investment will expand by 4.3 and 4.2 per cent respectively,” added Danucha. “Next year’s inflation rate is estimated at around 0.9 to 1.9 per cent, while current account will be at 1 per cent surplus of GDP.”