Thailand's low-value imports expected to rise 18% despite tax changes
Consumer goods imports are projected to reach around THB1.37 trillion in 2026 as cheap Chinese products put pressure on Thai small businesses.
- Thailand's low-value imports are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year in 2026, reaching a value of THB 44.5 billion.
- This growth is expected despite the abolition of the tax exemption for goods valued under THB 1,500, a measure which now subjects all imports to duties and VAT.
- The continued rise is attributed to the significant price advantage of imported goods, particularly from China, which remain cheaper than Thai-made equivalents even after the new taxes.
- The intense competition from these imports is negatively impacting local Thai SMEs, with manufacturing production for key consumer goods like clothing and furniture showing year-on-year declines.
KASIKORN Research Center expects Thailand’s consumer goods imports to continue rising in 2026, with low-value imports forecast to grow by 18% year on year despite the abolition of the de minimis tax exemption for goods priced at no more than THB1,500.
Imported goods valued at THB1 or more have instead been subject to both import duties and value-added tax (VAT) since Thursday (January 1, 2026), under a measure aimed at addressing the dumping of cheap foreign goods affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
The centre projects that Thailand’s consumer goods imports will reach around THB1.37 trillion in 2026, up more than 4% year on year.
It expects continued growth, particularly in imports of cheap goods from China, and puts China’s market share at 46%.
Imports of goods valued at less than THB1,500 are also expected to increase.
Their value grew by an average of 22% a year between 2021 and 2025.
Consumer goods, particularly clothing and textiles, account for more than 50% of the import value, followed by other industrial goods, including luggage, storage containers and sports equipment, as well as agro-industrial products.
Thailand fully abolished the de minimis threshold on January 1, 2026.
Although the measure is expected to increase tax revenue and narrow the price gap between Thai and imported goods, recent data indicate that low-value imports have not declined.
The value of low-value imports is forecast to continue growing in 2026, rising by around 18% year on year to THB44.5 billion.
This suggests that some Thai products may still struggle to compete with imports on price, particularly fashion items.
For fashion products, the centre reported a more than twofold price difference, with Chinese imports remaining cheaper than Thai-made equivalents even after tax.
Continued intense competition from imported goods is therefore weighing on the growth of Thai businesses, particularly SMEs.
In the first eight months of 2026, manufacturing production index (MPI) readings for key consumer goods, including clothing, footwear and furniture, continued to show year-on-year declines of 2%-13%, while consumer goods imports maintained year-on-year growth of 4.2% in value.
