UTCC forecasts 2.8% Thai export growth
THAI EXPORTS are likely to expand by an estimated 2.8 per cent this year – the best performance since 2013 – due to a recovering global economy, higher oil and crop prices and the baht’s depreciation, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
The UTCC forecasts that overseas shipments will grow by between 1.3 per cent and 4.2 per cent to a full-year total of US$218.4 billion-$224.63 billion (Bt7.76 trillion-Bt7.98 trillion), with the most likely outcome being in the middle of the range, at 2.8-per-cent growth to $221.58 billion.
“With stronger economic expansion, and especially strong cross-border trade, Thai shipments will witness stronger positive growth this year, from about 0.5-per-cent expansion worth $215.5 billion last year,” Aat Pisanwanich, director of the UTCC’s Centre for International Trade Studies, said Wednesday.
For shipments to hit the higher end of the forecast range, at 4.2 per cent, global gross-domestic-product growth would have to be 3.6 per cent and the baht would have to weaken to 37-38 against the US dollar, while the economies of the European Union and China would need to expand by 1.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, he said.