Additional 21 deaths is largest one-day increase in D.C. region

The figure brings the region's cumulative death toll to 126, double the number of victims just four days ago. Total reported case numbers swelled to 6,442, with 911 new infections identified. As in the rest of the United States, cases reported by the three jurisdictions are probably gross underestimates of actual infections because of the limited number of tests being conducted.

The record death count came a day after District Mayor Muriel Bowser, a Democrat, delivered a sobering forecast of the pandemic's path through the nation's capital, warning that 93,000 people - one in seven District residents - might contract the virus. It capped a week in which Maryland, Virginia and the District all ordered residents to stay in and around their homes except for necessary errands.

In neighboring Montgomery County, meanwhile, officials said Saturday they were witnessing early signs of strain to their medical resources. Twice in recent days, ventilators have been transported between hospitals or from the county's emergency management service to a hospital to cope with a surge of patients with severe respiratory problems, according to Earl Stoddard, director of the county's Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security.

"We haven't tipped the scale yet," Stoddard said. "But we're seeing enough action to register that the surge is coming." 

County officials estimate that they will need 600 more hospital beds than they now have to treat the patients who could flood hospitals as the virus spreads. They toured the recently closed Washington Adventist Hospital in Takoma Park with the Army Corps of Engineers and hope to reopen the 178-bed facility.

County Executive Marc Elrich, a Democrat, said recently that the federal government's failure to make tests for the virus widely available meant that local hospitals probably would confront a wave of sick patients before the true extent of infections was known.

"The [tests] are going to come," Elrich said in a virtual town hall, "but we're going to hit a surge here before they come."

Spiking infections and deaths in the Washington region mirror trends across the country. Officials announced at least 1,088 new deaths nationwide from covid-19 on Saturday, bringing the U.S. death toll to 8,175. More than 300,000 infected patients have been identified across the country.

Officials in the District, Maryland and Virginia are using different models to project the harm done by covid-19 - the disease caused by the novel coronavirus - in the coming months. 

All say the worst is yet to come.

District officials anticipate that hospitalized patients will peak in late June or early July. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, has said infections in the commonwealth would peak between late April and late May, but he has not released specific predictions about fatalities or hospitalizations. Maryland officials say they are still examining models of the disease's course and have not released projections.

Schools are shuttered in all three jurisdictions, but only in Virginia has the closure been formally extended through the end of the academic year. In a potential sign of longer-lasting closures elsewhere, however, the private Sidwell Friends School on Saturday announced that it would not reopen this academic year. The school has campuses in Northwest Washington and Bethesda.

"The situation is difficult for everyone, but today I am feeling especially sad for our students, who are deeply missed by all of us," Bryan Garman, Sidwell's head of school, wrote in a letter to families. Garman wrote that the school's board made the decision Friday after consulting with public health experts, and that a committee would determine how to celebrate the graduating senior class.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, called for a statewide moment of prayer and reflection at noon on Palm Sunday to show respect for the sick, the dead and for health-care workers and others whose jobs expose them to the threat of infection.

"Regardless of your own faith or beliefs, each and every one of us is now being asked to make sacrifices that may very well help us save the lives of others," Hogan said.

In the District, officials on Saturday raised more secular considerations, releasing a guide to safe sex amid the pandemic. "Consider not kissing anyone you do not know or who you are not sure has been isolated for 14 days," the primer recommends, among other tips.

Businesses across the region have been hit hard by the pandemic. Those not deemed essential for day-to-day needs have been forced to close. But in Washington, one business that falls into the essential category - Calvert Woodley Fine Wines & Spirits - has opted to shut its doors voluntarily.

Owner Michael Sands said business has boomed since the arrival of the novel coronavirus: In mid-March, shortly before the large liquor store switched to curbside pickup and delivery only, Sands estimated that his sales were up more than 60 percent. On St. Patrick's Day, there were about 800 customers in the store, compared to the usual 500, he said.

But on Saturday at 5 p.m., Sands planned to close temporarily. For now, he said, he will continue paying his 48 employees.

"Everyone has been told to stay home and keep distance, and our employees are all here," he said. "We don't have customers in the store. . . . So I thought: If everyone is home, and we can protect our employees, why not?"

Sands said he had been thinking for a while about how to close, but he was concerned about putting people out of work even as the business - unlike so many - was still making money. He was waiting to find out whether the store qualified for coronavirus-related federal loans, and he thinks the new paycheck-protection program will cover his payroll while the store is closed.

"If I had unlimited funds, I would have closed a few weeks ago, but that's not reality and I didn't want to put 48 employees - including some that have been here longer than me - on the unemployment line," he said.