Does Russia-Ukraine war mark geopolitical seismic shift for Europe, and what does it mean for Asia?

Mahfuz Anam, editor-in-chief of The Daily Star published in Bangladesh and the current chairman of ANN, said in his introductory note at the webinar titled “Europe’s Geopolitical Seismic Shift: What does it mean for Asia?” that the situation in Ukraine has shaken up the whole world. “We all need to clarify our thoughts from the opinions of experts. There are great concerns and that’s why we have guest speakers from Asian and European countries to speak on the topic.”

DR Julian Boucher, head of policy at Munich Security Conference, told the webinar that the tensions had been going on for a number of years and that he would not call it a geopolitical seismic shift.

“It’s not that bad even though it is there. It’s not the West against Russia. Nato members in the European Union seem to be united even more and EU members need to work together to look at the way forward,” he said.

He said there was no sudden geopolitical shift in Europe, “as we have seen the possibility of this event taking place for the last decade. This situation is just the tip of the iceberg”. Regarding the role of Germany, he said, “We must step up and become the leader in the EU. Germany needs to rely on a secure and wealthy EU continent. A complete invasion is only the main driver of change.”

Regarding German reaction to the current war, Boucher said the invasion was seen as a possibility. “It is not only geopolitical in scope but there is concern over economic presence. The concern is about the wealth and security of Europe, as 75 per cent of the German population expected the crisis. However, the German government did make a unity call after the Russian invasion of Ukraine."

“We need to look at the way forward as there are also many other topics where we need to work together, such as arms treaty, space debris, climate change etc. All members of Nato need to talk about cooperation and not competition.”
 

Ashok Sajjanhar, India’s former ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia, who has also had diplomatic postings to Washington DC, Brussels, Moscow, Geneva, Tehran, Dhaka, and Bangkok, showed his understanding of Baltic politics. In the webinar, he stressed that his opinion did not represent the government’s viewpoint.

He said India is very much in touch with the world and New Delhi has become an important stopover for world leaders. He pointed to the number of visits made by international delegations and leaders in recent months.

Sajjanhar said he does not think many people in India or the rest of the world expected the war to break out. Although tensions were imminent, people did not expect it to happen at this scale.

He said the situation came as a surprise. In his opinion, Russia could have stayed neutral and to not expect Ukraine to join Nato was a negative approach.

“Other countries such as Hungary, which is very sympathetic to Russia, have also expressed surprise at the attack. Military attacks from all sides were a surprise to everyone,” said Sajjanhar.

He said India has taken an evenhanded approach. It maintains its key global partnerships — with the United States and Europe — where there is a sense of congruence and similarity in shared values, and continues its strategic partnership with Russia on defence equipment. In addition to importing the S-400 missile launcher, the two countries also have cooperation on space exploration.

“We, however, have been watching with anxiety when Russia leaned toward China since the annexation of Crimea, by supplying oil to China, which reduced trust in Russia.

As a member of the UN Security Council, India discussed many issues with both Russia and Ukraine. The major issue earlier was to evacuate some population and students back to India. Poland, Slovak, and Hungary helped with the repatriation mission.

He said that we all need to look at the explanation Russia has offered that the expansion of Nato affected Russia’s security interests. The sovereignty of all countries needs to be respected and the UN charter needs to be respected. India is not in the habit of coming out and openly condemning or criticising, but prefers a one on one conversation. The issue needs to be resolved through bilateral dialogue, he said.

However, the former diplomat agrees that the global architecture will undergo a drastic shake-up. He said India’s position regarding the conflict is well-recognised.

Thailand’s Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist and Assoc Prof at the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, said at the introduction to the webinar that he was speaking in his private capacity and his views did not represent those of the Thai government. Panitan, who is chairman of the Prime Minister’s Security Advisory Committee, raised two points.

One, he said the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are real and no one seems to know the final outcome.

Two, in terms of Thailand’s geopolitical position, it is very controversial as “we do have bamboo diplomacy and as a small country far away from the battleground, we see uncertainty and uncertainty about the conflict is concerning”.

Panitan said that even though all countries are considered outsiders in this war, all countries are affected as outsiders. We see a sharper conflict in relations with China ; it could be the move towards a new war, he said

"We can see increases in defence budgets, concerns over regional borders, and concerns over national security.

Just overnight, we are seeing huge numbers of refugees leaving Ukraine on a big scale and they are many more than the 100,000 refugees that fled to Thailand from the neighbouring country” some years ago, Panitan said.

He said that if it were not a seismic shift as mentioned by some experts, then it was certainly a kind of tectonic shift. He said that Asia will respond to the emerging scenario. In particular, Japan and South Korea will react or review their national security.

Panitan said that the recovery of the global economy from Covid is one thing, but the war between Russia and Ukraine is another thing and that creates worries and concerns in Asia, and the region seems to have lost the ability to forecast the outcome of this war. He said the impact on the East Asian Security environment will certainly change. “This war will increase North Korea’s nuclear ambition. It will believe even more in its need for nuclear arms. There will be a potential shift in the US position on the Taiwan strait. He believes no country could defend its sovereignty by itself but will depend on a nuclear strategy.