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Trump’s policies not yet reflected in US economy

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Re: “Trump is cruising towards a second term”, Have Your Say, yesterday.

Evidently Barry Kenyon didn’t read the letter by Eric Bahrt, who correctly identified the source of President Trump’s “economic boom” in the policies of his predecessor (“Trump riding on the coattails of Obama’s economic success”, September 2). 
The end of this year will, in my opinion, bring a slowdown in the American economy as Trump’s policies start to take effect. Renegotiation of trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and the partnership with South Korea, as well as the pullout from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, will isolate the US more and more. This will have a disastrous effect on American exports and decrease the available income of Americans, cutting demand. 
Then there’s Trump’s damaging policies on immigration. They include the hunting down of illegal workers in the agriculture sector, where fruit is already starting to rot since foreign pickers are not available and Americans refuse this poorly paid labour. Trump is also scrapping DACA, the Obama programme that protected immigrant children from deportation. 
These and other policies will hurt the economy severely. Unemployment will rise. Tax reforms will add to the deficit, making Keynesian intervention to boost demand and thereby kick-start the economy unfeasible. 
By 2020, I suspect that the state of the US economy will such that Trump finds re-election impossible.
Egon

Published : September 05, 2017