That I don’t know, but I do know it will happen. With GDP at only 3.5 for the past three years while other Southeast Asian countries surpass that, combined with the massive expenditures of the military, the country can’t sustain itself. Household debt is increasing at an alarming rate. Banks are turning down personal loans for fear of default. The cost of living is increasing faster than the economy is growing.
And when this crash happens, it will make the last one look like a picnic in the park.
Even grade-school kids know you cannot buy a lollipop if you have no money.
A small percentage of people continue to do well with a $400-billion economy. Meanwhile the working class is not seeing any increase, farm commodities are dropping in value, and inflation marches on.
Add to this the obvious interference from influential people in the democratic process, with the privileged class continually vetoing the choices of the majority. The result is what amounts to a box of oily rags stored next to the furnace in the basement of a fireworks factory. I am no socialist, but Marx and Engels would have a field day with this.
What to expect when you chase away the needed foreign workers and make it very unattractive to invest here as a foreigner? Thais’ xenophobia and nationalism will bite them in the rear and they will come begging like a bar girl for lady drinks when they understand that they are broke. (And they will probably also blame foreigners for their bad economy.)
No need to worry, folks. The general will use Article 44 to fix everything.
It started slipping in 2006 when the military moved in to support the elite and others who were being pushed out of the trough by an economically astute and democratically elected government. Remember that the Thaksin administration had repaid the country’s borrowings from the IMF early, making Thailand the only country to have done so. Ever since, it has slipped and tripped further down the drain by the continuing process of mismanaged economics, not understood in any depth by the military and their supporters. Money is rather spent on unsound infrastructure and military spending with almost the total avoidance of support being given to the poorer Thais.
Nothing will change to get Thailand back on the road to economic leadership until these people are totally removed from power and influence and a sound economy is restored that benefits all of the nation, not just a few thousand at the top. What it will take to achieve that, and the time scale, are matters of conjecture.