The baht getting stronger as ‘democracy’ returns
Every single person I’ve spoken to has told me that the baht is overvalued. But is it?
The factors that influence a currency are balance of trade (import vs export), capital inflow, investment, local interest rates, foreign-currency reserves, tourism and sentiment.
Though the local policy rate is not high enough to stimulate trade, Thailand’s foreign-currency reserves rank 12th-largest in the world – bigger than Germany’s. Also, its tourism industry creates a demand for the baht, though sentiment in the country is totally underestimated.
Also, Thailand’s transition to democracy has been viewed favourably by foreign investors, and money has been pouring in over the past two weeks.
Yet, predicting currency fluctuations is a risky business at the best of times. All I can say is good luck to those speculators.
Alf Haupt
