Heavyweights heading this way

Deputy Government Spokesman Phakdiharn Himathongkham said Panetta was expected to sign a 2012 Joint Vision Statement for the Thai-US Defence Alliance with Defence Minister Sukampol Suwannathat, to elevate Thailand’s status as a major non-Nato ally during his visit on Thursday and Friday.

“This will demonstrate the security partnership between Thailand and the US in the region,” he said. 

Panetta is scheduled to fly out afterwards to take part in a regional security conference in Phnom Penh. The US defence secretary has had a busy trip to the Far East, meeting Pacific allies in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Singapore, as the United States shifts military hardware as well as aircraft carriers to the region.

Sukampol said: “There is nothing special about the visit of the US defence secretary. He and I have known and met with each other before. So I have invited him for an official visit to Thailand. We shall be holding talks with each other for 30 minutes before attending a dinner reception.”

Talks between Thai and US officials will focus on reviving comprehensively the security and military arrangements left off since 1975 when the Americans left the region after losing the war in Vietnam and Laos. Washington is keen to bring Thailand aboard as a security and military ally as it shifts military operations to this part of the world to counter China, which is going through a critical leadership transition.

The US will also invite Thailand to join talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade pact that would exclude China but include Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia.

The Thai Cabinet reviewed the TPP proposal yesterday and the possibility of Thailand joining the talks. The pact would arguably boost trade with the US and partners.

But Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi, secretary-general of the United Nations’ trade and development body, has warned that Thailand could be subject to tough conditions that outweigh benefits of joining the TPP.

Obama, meanwhile, will visit Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia next weekend, and become the first US leader to visit half of the Asean members during his first term. 

“Vietnam could have been included in the itinerary this time because of a long-standing invitation to the White House, but it was deliberately left out. Otherwise, the whole visit could easily be construed as a concerted effort to counter China’s growing influence,” regional expert Kavi Chongkittavorn said.

“Despite the media spin that US engagement with Asean comes at the region’s repeated request, the rise of China and its growing confidence remain a major focus, if not obsession, of the US rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific region. Certainly, the historic trip has zeroed in on the three Asean members with special relations with China.”

Yesterday US officials travelled to Government House to conduct a security check. The entourage of 40-50 officials arrived at 7.30am and did an inspection inside Government House without Thai officials, many of whom expressed dissatisfaction with the intrusion.

Obama, who will be accompanied on the trip by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, is expected to stay at the Grand Hyatt Erawan Hotel. 

Apart from a comprehensive review of Thai-US military and security arrangements and the TPP, Obama is expected to hold talks with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to mark the two countries’ 180th anniversary of relations.

He will discuss the Proliferation Security Initiative with Yingluck, which has some 101 members. The initiative seeks an end to the spread of weapons of mass destruction. A trade and investment framework agreement is also likely to be reached between the two leaders.

Yesterday, Yingluck left for an official visit to Britain to boost ties, after an invitation from Prime Minister David Cameron. No major agreements are expected to be signed between the two leaders. During the three-day visit, Yingluck will also be granted an audience with Queen Elizabeth.

Yingluck and Cameron are expected to agree to the establishment of a strategic dialogue as a high-level, bilateral and consultative forum to monitor and set future direction for cooperation in all areas.

A joint statement from Thailand and Britain said the new mechanism would also serve as a strong platform for both sides to exchange views on regional and multilateral issues. Thailand will play host to the first dialogue with the United Kingdom.

After his visit to Bangkok, Obama will travel to Myanmar next Monday to meet with President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Thai officials say the US would like to invite Myanmar to take part in the Cobra Gold military exercise, due to be held in February, as an observer.

Thailand and the US will co-host Cobra Gold, which will have five other participants – Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. 

Other observers are Brunei, China, New Zealand, Russia, Sri Lanka, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Laos and South Africa.

“But there is a high possibility that Myanmar and India will be invited to join Cobra Gold as observers too,” a senior Thai military official said.

Dr Panitan Wattanayangkorn, a security expert and former spokesman for the government of Abhisit Vejjajiva, said Thailand would need to walk a balanced line amid superpower rivalry in the region.

He recommended that Thailand strengthen relations with Russia and India and also guard its close ties with the United States. 

Next Tuesday, Obama will head to Phnom Penh to join the East Asia Summit, where regional security will be in the spotlight. China will be represented at the East Asia Summit by Premier Wen Jiabao, who is likely to hold bilateral talks with Obama.

Wen, who is due to leave office next March, will make an official visit to Bangkok after the summit as China is getting worried about the changing security environment in the region.

The Chinese Embassy in Bangkok will hold a news conference on Thursday to give details about Wen’s visit here. Beijing will be keen to remind Thailand about the long-standing relations between the two countries amid its growing rivalry with Washington.