Debate on loan bill is a battle of populists vs conservatives

To start off, the Democrats will mount a strong opposition to the Bt2.2-trillion loan bill tomorrow. And the three-day debate on this bill will see lawmakers on both sides invoking every legislative trick to outwit and outlast the other. 

Next week, the debate will focus on charter change and the key opposition party is getting ready to fight tooth and nail to block the ruling party from amending the Constitution. 

Then, before House recess, the government is scheduled to present its job per?formance report – and the opposition is like?ly to treat this report as if it were a censure motion. 

On top of all these legislative battles, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will on Thursday meet with graft busters in order to rebut allegations of concealing a Bt30-million loan extended to her husband’s business.

The Democrats are closely monitoring this case as it could unseat the prime minister.

Then, in less than a week, the Election Commission is to finalise its decision on whether to call for another poll to elect a new Bangkok governor.

The ruling party is likely to launch a very noisy protest if the EC decides to let winning Democrat Sukhumbhand Paribatra to assume office pending a probe into alleged campaign offences.

So, it is not surprising that coalition and opposition strategists are busy mapping out contingency measures for the expected political dramas.

In the face of the prevailing polarisation, a snap election might present a problem rather than a solution. The 2005 early poll proved to have widened the political divide.

Hence, the government has no choice but to sit tight and ride out the political storms coming its way. After all, if Yingluck or her brother, fugitive former PM Thaksin, were to make a wrong move, the country might once again veer off the democratic path. 

In addition, last week’s “rumour” in the stock market served as a reminder that the military factor was still part of the Thai political reality.

Key players should be mindful of the fact that the behind-the-scenes dispensing of job assignments for the mid-year military reshuffle was not as smooth as the government spin-doctors made us believe.

Though Yingluck rushed to submit the reshuffle list for royal approval, it was just a move to gag the top brass – it did not resolve anything. 

Since the government is apparently in a vulnerable position on the legislative, legal and military fronts, it is no surprise that the Democrats have seized the moment to launch an offensive.

Tomorrow’s debate on the loan bill is not a mere deliberation on whether the government should, or should not, incur public debt to finance its mega-projects.

Rather, it is a test of the comparative strengths of populism and conservatism. 

At this juncture, the government already has the majority to push through the massive loan scheme, but over the three-day debate on this bill, the Democrats are hoping to rouse conservative forces and challenge what they consider a non-prudent management of finances by the populists. 

The Democrat-Pheu Thai showdowns on contentious issues like the loan bill and charter change have far-reaching implications.

The coalition and the opposition parties are setting their sights on the next election.

The Yingluck administration is doing everything to ensure a second term, while the Democrats are working hard to cut down on the Pheu Thai majority in order to grab power eventually.