Constitutional Court may be next flashpoint

To answer this question, we need to consider three related factors – ongoing protests against the government, confrontations by the government’s mass supporters and anti-government protesters, and the ruling by the Constitutional Court on charter amendments on senators’ qualifications and selection. The ruling is scheduled for November 20.
It appeared clear that after the government had done everything possible to show its intention to abort the amnesty plan, most civic groups opposed to the amnesty bill decided to stop their protests.
In the latest development, the Senate rejected the bill late Monday night. As a result, most civic groups decided to call off their protests for now to wait and see whether the government would keep its word. For example, groups of businessmen have announced through the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand that they would not hold more protests now. University rectors have also announced through a meeting of the Council of University Presidents of Thailand that the universities would wait and see. And even respected social critic Prawase Wasi has come out to warn the protesters to stop now that the bill has been rejected.
Prawase, university rectors and the businessmen sent out similar messages that they wanted to stop the protests for now for fear the situation would lead to confrontation and violence. If they continued to hold protests until the situation escalates out of control, they themselves could make mistakes.
It is undeniable that the protests against the amnesty bill so far were so powerful that the government retreated because of various civic groups showing their force, not because of the Democrat-led protests alone. Now that the independent civic groups have agreed to step back, the pressure on the government has greatly reduced.
The government believes that its retreat would separate the protesters who are against the amnesty bill from those who want to topple the administration. Actually, the government is not worried much by the Democrat-led protests.
Regarding concerns about confrontations by the mass supporters of the government and their opponents, so far there is little chance of clashes between the two sides because each side is restricted to its turf.
A red-shirt leader, who asked not to be named, told The Nation that the government did not want to see clashes.
“The government simply wants to send a warning message to the military and the Constitutional Court,” the source said. “We know that we will be at a disadvantage if clashes occur because the military will intervene, or at least we will be on the defensive if violence happens.”
The Pheu Thai Party is now focusing on trying to survive as long as possible. If it is unable to hang on, it can dissolve the House because it is confident that it would win the election again.
Although protests and possible clashes are not worrisome, several analysts see the ruling on November 20 as a possible cause of political violence.
The court has been asked whether it was a conflict of interest for MPs and senators to amend the charter to allow themselves and MPs’ close relatives to contest senatorial elections. The court was also asked to rule whether it was illegal for some MPs to ask peers to vote on their behalf during the deliberation of the amendment bill.
There are three scenarios for the ruling. First, the court may rule that it is not unconstitutional. Second, the court may rule that the passage of the amendment was unconstitutional – but the court would hold the 312 MPs and senators responsible individually, without punishing the political parties.
In the third scenario, the court may rule that the amendment bill violated Article 68 and would dissolve Pheu Thai and all coalition partners.
It would be fine if the ruling comes out in the first and second scenarios. But if the court rules to dissolve Pheu Thai, the red shirts would definitely not stand by and watch their favoured party dissolved again.
It is expected that on November 20, the Democrats will try to mobilise very high numbers of protesters, as the People’s Alliance for Democracy did in 2008 before the court dissolved the People Power Party.
The red-shirt movement plans to pressure the court as well by holding a mass demonstration to show force on November 18-20 at the Muang Thong Thani.
So, a risky situation is brewing.