Martial law no quick fix for Thailand's political problems

Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha declared martial law nationwide in a statement made at 3 am.

He justified the move to take charge of all security matters, crackdown on dissent and curb on press freedoms as necessary to prevent more violence between rival political groups.

"I need this power, otherwise who would listen to me?" Prayuth said. He also urged all sides to enter into talks to resolve the country's polarized political conflicts.

The move was greeted with skepticism from the caretaker government, which has been the target of protests seeking to oust it from office for the past six months."This is not going to solve the problem, because the country's problems are political, not military," said caretaker Education Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng.

Anti-government protesters have been demanding a Senate-appointed interim prime minister to preside over political reforms before any new elections.They are insisting on measures to prevent the rise of populist politicians such as fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.The caretaker government, led by the Pheu Thai Party of which Thaksin is still de facto leader, insists on a general election.

"The military has two obvious choices - either use this opportunity to create a secured and inclusive environment for election and reform under civilian government, or to push for a pseudo-legitimate process that replaces the caretaker government with transitional guarantees for the traditional elites," legal analyst Verapat Pariyawong said. "The unmasking moment is coming," he wrote on his Facebook page.

Prayuth, army commander-in-chief since October 2010, has tried to keep the army neutral during the past six months of near daily demonstrations, primarily in the capital. He is due to retire in October.

 

Prayuth has repeatedly denied that the army was planning a coup to end the conflict, while appealing to both sides resolve their differences through dialogue. His patience apparently ran thin on Thursday, after unidentified assailants killed three protesters with M16 rifles and M79 grenades, prompting Prayuth to warn the military was preparing to use "full-force" to restore law and order.

On Tuesday, he insisted that the martial law declaration was not a military coup. The army is taking over security responsibilities, but not any of the other normal administrative functions of government.

The move was prompted by a buildup of rallies by pro-government activists on the outskirts of Bangkok to confront their rivals if the elected government fell.
"The impact of martial law on the (pro-government) UDD will be greater than it is on the (anti-government) PDRC, because the UDD is approaching the time when they need to come out and demonstrate, because it looks like the Senate is going ahead with an appointed prime minister," Chaturon said.
He warned even martial law would not stop activists from protesting against an appointed prime minster.

"This will lead to a violation of martial law, and at some point the military will need to kill people and perhaps declare a coup,"Chaturon predicted. Alternatively, if Prayuth backs a general election, he will be criticised by the anti-government protesters, including Thailand's political elite.
"He needs to walk a fine line that is going to get more and more difficult as he goes along," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist and military affairs expert at Chulalongkorn University.