Peace has returned to Thailand but the road ahead is still hazy and complex

A year later, both supporters as well as detractors of the putsch will undoubtedly acknowledge that the country has become relatively peaceful, and been spared the endless street protests.

The martial law has been lifted but it has been converted into an order from the coup-makers – the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) – that hands wide-ranging powers to the military.

Critics point to the restrictions on rights and liberties. Political gatherings of five people or more are still prohibited, which has prevented political parties from holding meetings, even when their opinions are sought for matters like constitution drafting.

Small protests or shows of dissent against the coup were easily subdued. But under the surface, discontent is brewing and threatening to boil over. Post-coup life is miserable for people who disapprove of it, but those who are more accepting find signs of improvement.

Not surprisingly, the coup ignited a strong reaction from the international community. The United States has frozen military assistance and cooperation, the European Union has discouraged any significant cooperation with the military government while many others in Asia have said they supported the “Thai way” of political reform towards democracy and reconciliation. 

It seems the government has failed in its efforts to bring about a rapprochement between the conflicting groups, who still refuse to reconcile and many of them still engage in hate speech on social networks.

During a recent visit by reporters from The Nation to a community in Pathum Thani that was targeted by authorities in the reconciliation efforts, we found that the residents associated with the red shirts and the yellow shirts still could not come to terms with each other.

Some red-shirt residents said that due to the pressure from the military, they could no longer be politically active like in the past. 

“But we still have not changed. In our hearts, we are still red shirts,” one of them said.

The drafting of the new constitution has almost been completed. However, observers fear that disagreements between the Constitution Drafting Committee and the National Reform Council over certain provisions may doom the draft’s chances of getting endorsed by the NRC. If that happens, the framing process will have to start again from scratch.

Things seem to be proceeding down the post-coup roadmap as unveiled by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Prayut, who as the NCPO head wields extensive powers under the interim charter, has maintained that the roadmap’s timeline would be followed, although he hasn’t ruled out staying on in power for a few more years. 

After some politicians called for a democratic constitution, even if that meant the postponement of the next election, Prayut said those people should help find a way if they want the government to overstay the term specified in the roadmap.

Recently, some members of the NRC called for a revision of the draft constitution to require a national referendum on whether the reforms should be implemented in two years after the new charter is promulgated, before the next election will be held. 

If the request is granted and most voters agree, those in power will remain in office for two more years. That may be bad news for the junta’s detractors and the Western countries that have condemned the coup, but it will be good news for those who view Prayut and his team as agents of change.

One year after the NCPO assumed power, villagers in rural provinces have felt their power to protect their communities weaken. More than 100 mining licences have either been renewed or issued, as most locals remain in the dark.

It is hard for local leaders or local environmentalists to mobilise residents in the same neighbourhood to block a project that may have serious impacts on the local environment and their health. 

If they hold a big gathering – even to provide information on possible adverse impacts from a project – they will attract soldiers too.

On another front, the NCPO’s policy to reclaim forestland from encroachers is laudable. However, the landless and the underprivileged are the first group to bear the brunt of this policy, as they will be forced out of the forest, their homeland for many decades.

On the economic front, business leaders have praised the post-coup government’s grand ambition to tackle the country’s problems. But they are also urging the government to tackle the challenges for sustainable growth. 

They suggest that the government enhance the country’s competitiveness, reform the educational system, save households from ballooning debts and help boost farmers’ incomes.

 

On the first anniversary of the coup, The Nation will run a series of articles every day during this week.