Outcome of charter referendum won’t affect junta

Judging from general sentiment, the constitutional draft being written by CDC chairman Meechai Ruchupan and his team is in a rather sorry state. Only a few groups of people seem to be satisfied with the content of the draft, although the government has not made its standpoint known.

Certainly, the groups mainly disagreeing with the draft are political parties and politicians, particularly those from the Pheu Thai Party. They are against the charter draft, both in terms of its content and process. Politicians from the Democrat Party have not made it clear about their stance, but some have come out publicly to criticise certain proposed provisions.

The main point with which politicians disagree involves concern that a new electoral system proposed for the new constitution would make it unlikely to achieve a one-party government. Unless there was a landslide election victory, no political party would be able to form a government on its own. As a result, coalition government would be inevitable.

Moreover, the fact that there is no requirement for a prime minister to be an elected member of Parliament has led to concern that a non-MP could become government head. The constitution drafters explained that political parties would each be required to publicly submit three prime ministerial candidates when contesting a general election. But critics questioned the merit of a requirement for each political party to nominate as many as three PM candidates. They argued that it was natural for political parties to announce their PM candidate, but they suspected there could be hidden motives behind the requirement to nominate three PM candidates.

Also, critics asked why the constitution drafters wanted only one ballot to be used for both constituency and party-list elections? They argued that using two ballots to vote for constituency and party-list MPs better reflected the intention of voters. They said voters had become familiar with using one ballot for constituency election and another for party-list vote. For critics, using only one vote for both elections was a retrogressive move. Also, they suspected a hidden agenda behind this idea of a single ballot.

Provisions in the new constitution would make it more difficult for the post-election government to do its work. There would be strict scrutinising measures and tough regulations for the next administration to follow. Also, the Constitutional Court would be empowered to rule on issues that were not covered by the constitution. In the future, this court would hand down verdicts on political issues, although members of independent organisations had been accused of bias and being close to certain groups of power.

Thanks to certain clauses, it would be difficult to amend the new constitution. Also, people are waiting to see whether the issue of political amnesty will be included in the new constitutional draft.

Those are reasons why political parties and groups will vote against the new charter draft at the national referendum. If political parties join hands in going against the draft, it will be really difficult for the draft to pass the plebiscite.

However, many political observers suspect the new charter may be drafted in a way to make sure it will not pass the national vote.

They pointed to the fact that even if the charter draft failed to pass the referendum, there would be no impact on the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). The junta would not be at a disadvantage or in a tough situation, but on the contrary, would gain an advantage.

If the charter draft passes the referendum, the NCPO will be able to benefit from certain clauses in the new constitution, which may allow it to “inherit” their power.

But even if the draft fails to pass, the NCPO still has two options. First, it may order a new round of constitution drafting and continue doing so until the draft passes a referendum. That means the NCPO will remain in power for the time being. Second, the junta may write a new constitution by itself and promulgate it without having to pass a national vote. That way, it could write the new charter the way it liked it, without having to seek anyone’s consent.

Thanks to its status as the ultimate sovereign power, the junta is still in complete control of the country -- whether the constitutional draft passes the referendum or not.