FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Strategies map out 20 years of potential threats

Strategies map out 20 years of potential threats

As the government’s 20-year national strategies become clearer, a mix of viewpoints has emerged.

Some people are looking at the process as a product of a military mindset and are cautious, while others believe the military approach may help steer the country in the right direction, which might be better than leaving the task to politicians.
Whatever the viewpoint, the military is trying to justify its approach, in part by identifying the range of potential threats that the strategies are meant to counter.
The Prayut government’s 20-year strategies are set to start in 2017. As revealed to The Nation by a military intelligence source, the long-term objectives aim to ensure that the country develops with stability and prosperity under the sufficiency economy philosophy.
The goals are for Thais to be happy, have high incomes and have a standard of living in keeping with developed countries. The strategies state that in society there must be equality, justice and economic competitiveness.
The strategies also address cyber threats, which the government views as a national threat.
National threats change quickly in accordance with border-less communication technologies. State websites have collapsed after attacks by anonymous hackers, resulting in operations ceasing temporarily.
The reasons behind the cyber attacks range from dissatisfaction with government policies to religious beliefs and political ideologies.
The military source said both conventional threats and new emerging threats were being considered.
Conventional threats spurred the deployment of troops in response to military clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. Military analysts believe this type of threat is unlikely to take place again given both sides have common interests such as economic benefits. For example, the two countries use energy sources in the Gulf of Thailand in overlapping areas.
The national strategic framework identifies threats to the country starting now and projecting to five, 10 and 20 years’ time. The government believes that over the next 20 years there will be new or unconventional threats that may be similar to present-day threats but different in detail.
Those threats include terrorism, although Thailand is not generally considered to be a prime terrorism target. The threat of terrorism, however, has intensified with advancements in technology and communications. Countries’ borders have become almost meaningless. Additionally, it has become necessary to prepare for threats such as sabotage and cyber attacks that destroy communications and threaten the economic system.
There are also threats from communicable diseases as many new diseases have emerged, spreading quickly and widely and often exceeding the capabilities of civilian healthcare responders.
Another threat that is considered as new relates to conflicts over natural resources.
Some of these threats are initiated as people carry out their normal daily routines, requiring constant vigilance and thorough monitoring of the possible indicators and precursors of a threat. Authorities have to evaluate both the intentions and capabilities of suspects to assess the possible threat level.
This is particularly true in the case of cyber attacks because just a single person can stage an attack and collapse a computer system, so the threat capability is clear.
For the most part, the 20-year national strategies focus on threats that derive from within the country.
Advocates of the national strategies point out that Thailand has never before mapped out such a comprehensive approach, as past governments generated contradictory policies based on political priorities and their popularity.

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