FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
nationthailand

After the election, who minds the gap safely until the next govt?

After the election, who minds the gap safely until the next govt?

QUESTIONS on whether the junta will perpetuate its power after a general election next year have become the most controversial and talked about points in Thai politics over the past two weeks.

The plot thickened when Prayut Chan-o-cha’s Cabinet submitted 16 proposals on the charter draft to the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) on February 18.
The 16th item proposed that drafters include a provisional clause that allowed a special mechanism to maintain peace and order after the general election and during the handover to a new government.
Establishing what is called a “quasi-democracy” during the transitional period, the proposal was seen as an attempt by the junta’s National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to retain power over a new government.
One day later, that attempt was confirmed by former charter chief writer Borwornsak Uwanno, whose charter draft was rejected by the now-defunct National Reform Council last September. 
“I felt sad for just one day. The next day I realised it [the NCPO] wanted to stay [in power] longer,” Borwornsak told reporters at a charter seminar when asked how he felt after his draft was voted down.
Borwornsak also revealed that the Cabinet had earlier submitted a similar proposal for the transitional period to the charter drafting committee that he had led.
While he refused to elaborate further, his rejected draft included a National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Committee, or a “crisis” panel. The panel – which is believed to have been the main reason the draft was rejected – was intended to break a political impasse, but it also gave rise to fears that it could overrule the next government in power.
Three days later, a source close to the NCPO revealed a proposal by members of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and the National Reform Steering Assembly to have 200 appointed Senators, which would be authorised in conjunction with the lower House to pick the next PM.
The idea, which academics have called “insane”, would ensure the Senate’s full support for the junta after an election.
The next day, it was Prayut who affirmed the country needed a special mechanism to advance reforms during a five-year transitional period.
“It [the mechanism] could be a new panel or the Senate or whoever to control the direction,” he said, adding that the mechanism would help guide the next government.
Those moves then led to two ex-premiers launching strong attacks against the charter draft and the junta.
First, Thaksin Shinawatra accused the junta of jeopardising the nation’s fragile economy by pushing for a new constitution that, he said, was designed to perpetuate the military’s power in politics.
Later, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh called on the NCPO to relinquish power and hold a general election this year.
The pair echoed the same thoughts – trying to pre-empt the junta from staying in power longer than the road map specified, and campaigning for people to vote against the charter.
However, the ability of the junta to retain power now depends on CDC chief Meechai Ruchupan and his panel, and their decision whether or not to add any special rules to fulfil the junta’s intentions.
According to the 2014 interim charter, when the draft is complete the CDC should inform the Cabinet, which in turn will inform the Election Commission forthwith to organise a nation referendum as scheduled.
This means the Cabinet will not be authorised to make changes to the draft, nor have the power to approve or reject it after Meechai submits it by the March 29 deadline.
After a serious recent meeting between Meechai and Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam – who is also the government’s legal expert – the chief drafter showed no signs of agreeing to a special body or mechanism that would take effect during the transitional period.
Meechai affirmed that the new constitution would have mechanisms that made it necessary for elected governments to implement reforms – but not a special body that could overrule a government.
“When an election takes place and the country has a government, the NCPO has to go,” Meechai said last Thursday.
On the surface, it looked as if the issue would become a conflict between Meechai and the government. But it was the prime minister who picked Meechai for the crucial task of drafting the constitution, so observers doubted whether the latter would really refuse to satisfy the |former’s wish. 
Prayut and the junta may have good intentions to see the country move forward smoothly during a transitional period – but if the drafters really add a special mechanism in line with the junta’s request, both the CDC and the government would need to justify the reason to the public and the international community.
In a modern world, where people are more enthusiastic and informed about politics, it would seem difficult for the junta to retain its power for long after an election.
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