Junta wants a Senate brake on a new government

The idea was proposed by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and later supported by Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha. 

The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) leaders claimed the proposal was aimed at ensuring the reform guidelines and national strategies formulated by the current government are fully implemented by the next administration. But critics saw it as an attempt to retain the junta’s power after an election. 

The idea concerned people most especially when Prawit floated a “trial balloon” – saying that it was possible for NCPO members to be selected as senators. Some sources hinted that Prayut could become the Senate Speaker himself. 

This special mechanism would be similar to the National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Commission, or the so-called “crisis panel” that the NCPO asked former drafters to add in the charter draft last year that was later rejected.

Prayut’s reason for the idea was that he was not sure whether politicians were ready to join hands to move the country forward.

“Please tell me if all of you [politicians] are ready. Who will guarantee it? Even though I hold the power now, they still fight these days. So I don’t know what will happen in the future,” Prayut said. 

Judging from his remarks, Prayut was well aware he could not relinquish power, otherwise this latest coup would have been a waste. 

Despite saying the idea was just his own personal opinion, Prayut and the junta were obviously determined to push hard for the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) to add their proposal to the draft. 

To achieve their goal, Prayut and the NCPO would need to overcome two obstructions posed by the CDC and politicians.

First, Prayut needs to convince CDC chief Meechai Ruchupan to add the selected Senate proposal to apply for the first five-year period stipulated in the draft. 

Meechai initially rebutted the idea – but last week he seemed to have softened his stance. He said he had waited for an official proposal in a written document so he would be able to decide whether he could or could not follow the NCPO’s demand.

Meechai will have to think carefully. It will be a challenge for the 78-year-old legal expert to decide on a proposal that observers called a “dictator in disguise” in the charter draft. 

One CDC adviser, Jade Donavanik, warned that if the CDC followed the demands of the junta it would be more difficult for the draft to pass the referendum. He said the CDC would face difficulties explaining to voters why they must follow the junta’s orders but not the public’s needs.

The CDC is expected to review the political structure section, including the origins of the Senate, and the provisional clause this week. 

However, if Meechai refuses to write the clauses as the NCPO demands, the junta could seek help from the National Legislative Assembly and the National Reform Steering Assembly. 

The latest amendment to the 2014 interim charter allows the two bodies to propose an additional question for voters to be included with the national referendum for the draft. Both bodies could ask voters to choose “yes” or “no” for a selected Senate. 

If the question is asked in the referendum and voters approve the proposal, the CDC would have to review the final draft in accordance with the referendum results, according to the amendment of the 2014 interim charter. 

However, a tougher task would be getting both the draft and the new question to pass in the referendum. 

Both major political camps – Pheu Thai and the Democrat Party – have expressed their opposition to the draft, and especially a potential clause about a selected Senate. They felt the idea would lessen politicians’ power and subject the government to close scrutiny by a Senate that would not be elected. So, politicians will definitely campaign for their supporters to vote down the draft.

Hence, it’s risky for the junta if it pushes too hard for a selected Senate. Failing to pass the referendum could mean voters reject the NCPO as well.