Was the coup worth it?

Citing immediate unrest, national divide and politicians’ abuse of power, the coup-makers, officially known as National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), vowed to unravel the political knots by ensuring peace and order, and undertaking reforms.

Two years have past and there is one more year to go before the “road map to democracy” reaches its end. 

Outwardly at least, people are able to lead quite normal lives – no demonstrators are on the street paralysing the country. Attempts have been made to bring about reconciliation and reform. Several working bodies such as panels to write a new constitution and a reform assembly have been set up to provide necessary mechanisms to give the country a fresh start after the next election.

But how successful are these bodies and will we really get a democracy at the end of these paths? 

The answers, by the agents involved and political analysts, vary depending on the issues at hand.

Alongkorn Ponlaboot, a veteran politician who has sat on both the defunct and the current reform bodies, claimed that the Prayut regime has impressively accomplished its goal to create a great reform plan that will change the country politically, economically, and socially.

“The blueprint for change has been drawn, 48 reform plans have been submitted to the government for further implementation, and a 20-year national strategy is underway,” the vice president of the National Reform Steering Assembly (NRSA) said.

He said that by the election next year, most of these plans would be ready for the next government to implement. The plans cover priorities such as measures against corruption, one of the country’s biggest problems.

Alongkorn praised the junta chief Prayut for his dedication and strong will to bring about reform unlike other coup-makers. “He does not have to do this, but he does. I think that’s very admirable,” Alongkorn said.

Prayad Phungchampa, the deputy secretary-general of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), agreed that the regime has a strong will to bring about reform and is serious about curbing graft. A good foundation had been laid out under this government that could be carried out into the future, Prayad said.

Laws and regulations, including clauses in the new charter, have been passed that would enhance the work of the anti-graft agency in combating corruption, he said. And over the past two years, special powers have been deployed to facilitate investigations.

“Those suspected to be involved in corruption are transferred via the use of Article 44 out of embattled areas. This makes investigations much easier,” he said.

But, in the eyes of those calling for reform, the NCPO could have done much better.

People’s Democratic Reform Foundation (PDRF) spokesman Akanat Promphan, who has been a key member since the movement was active in 2013 and 2014, said crucial reforms could be carried out in a short period of time, if the powers-that-be were decisive and determined.

“The NCPO has done a good job writing all the reform plans and resolving some immediate problems such as human trafficking and overpriced lotteries in the past two years... But, I think there are other important points that they could have covered,” he said. “Reform of politics, decentralisation, and [reform of] the police should be undertaken.”

Akanat said he understood that the regime had faced a lot of international pressure. But he hoped that in the remaining year these matters would be dealt with.

“If by the next election political reform is not successful, we’ll just go back to the same vicious cycle,” he said, referring to the violent protests over the past decade.

But he said it was hard to judge if overall reforms had been fruitful.

“There is a lot that we haven’t seen yet … The fate of the [new] constitution is still uncertain and its organic laws haven’t even come into existence yet,” Akanat said. “The change in the political structure that people called for is based on that. So, we’ll just have to wait and see.”

Another reform advocate Suriyasai Katasila, was direct in saying the NCPO’s record in undertaking reformhad been unsatisfactory.

“On a short-term basis, they did well in coping with immediate issues like corruption problems that lingered since the previous government, [plus] human trafficking issues, and lotteries,” he said. “But for the medium- and long-term, they haven’t really done enough considering it has been two years [since the coup] already,” he said.

“Police reform, for instance, is something that I don’t see when most people agree that this institution needs refinement,” he said.

The remaining year would be a key test for the regime, Suriyasai said. If things continued like present, the three years under the military-led regime would be seen as a lost opportunity [to bring about change]. Like Akanat, he hoped more changes and reforms would be undertaken in the NCPO’s final year.

“They have the power to do this and they should. If next year is still the same, things will go back to how it was before the coup in 2014,” he said.

 

527 people arrested, 114 charged 

In terms of maintaining peace and order, the regime’s record appears impressive, on the surface. There have been no major street protests like in 2013 and 2014, when parts of Bangkok were blocked. But critics say the regime may confuse peace with silence. 

According to Internet Law Reform Dialogue, or iLaw, since the power seizure at least 992 people have been summoned or received a visit by the military. At least 527 have been arrested, with 67 individuals charged with lese majeste and 47 charged with sedition.

Anusorn Unno, a lecturer at Thammasat University and a member of the Thai Academic Network for Civil Rights, argues that the regime’s concept of peace is wrong.

Anusorn said occasional political gatherings over the past two years were not “unrest” or a threat to national security. Rather, they were symptoms of persistent conflict that has not abated.

“The measures against gatherings are not for the sake of national security, it is suppression of one political faction,” he said.

Instead of settling the conflict, he said the NCPO had become a part of it – and even worsened the situation by created negative feelings for people who are against the current regime.

While the regime had managed to silence opposing voices, but when opportunities come, they would “explode” either through votes in the upcoming referendum on the constitution or the election next year, the academic said.

Meanwhile, attempts have been made to set up reconciliation panels under reform assemblies, which have been trying to find ways for people with different ideologies to co-exist. Their plans include repealing legal cases related to political rallies over the past 10 years, in the hope that this could give everyone a chance to reassess what they have done, apologise, and start again. 

However, peace, order and reconciliation are somewhat tricky and efforts to unify the country have been hard to achieve since the coup.