Black May and Prayut’s path to ‘dignified’ premiership

The official results show 61.35 per cent (16.8 million) supported the charter draft while 58.07 per cent (15.1 million) endorsed the additional proposal to allow the 250 appointed senators to join 500 elected MPs in selecting the next prime minister.

The results were also seen as a thumbs-down for politicians, with the majority of voters defying the public stance taken against the charter by the two major parties, Pheu Thai and the Democrats.

Following the draft’s approval, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) chief appears more confident about his popularity and believes he is in his strongest position since staging the coup two years ago.

Some reckon the 62-year-old coup-maker’s chances of becoming the country’s next top leader are now very bright indeed. Why?

Prayut has no need to set up a new party or run for election, since he can rely for parliamentary support on his “own party” – the 250 senators appointed by the NCPO and authorised to vote for the next prime minister. 

And Prayut might not find himself lonely in the House of Representatives.

Paiboon Nititawan, a former senator and ex-member of the now-defunct National Reform Council, has announced his intention to set up a new political party, named People’s Reform, to support Prayut as the next premier. Some small and medium-sized parties are reportedly ready to follow suit.

National Legislative Assembly members went even further, pushing for the 250 hand-picked senators to be permitted to not just vote for a prime minister but also name their own candidate.

 Post-referendum surveys also indicated popular endorsement of almost every aspect of Prayut’s rule, with most respondents willing to support him as an “outsider” prime minister, not drawn from the elected lower House. 

A Super Poll released on Sunday found that 87.2 per cent of respondents agreed that Prayut should stay on as premier after the next election. The poll was conducted from August 25-27 on 1,590 people.

Apart from identifying the lack of a better choice, the respondents thought Prayut was honest, determined, able to control the situation, exercise his absolute power via Article 44 with good results, combat corruption and show more effective leadership.

Amid such public endorsement, it was no surprise to see Prayut rush to announce his desire to serve as prime minister after the next election.

“Even though the work is harder and I am not paid for it, I would be pleased to stay on. But I will stay through democratic means and in a dignified way, although I don’t know now how that will come,” the NCPO chief, who has ruled the country since seizing power in May 2014, said last Friday.

Prayut had previously been reluctant to declare his plans, perhaps wary that history might repeat itself.

After staging a coup in 1991, former Army chief Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon vowed he had no interest in becoming premier, only to reverse that promise at the invitation of five parties – Samakkitham, Chart Thai, Social Action, Thai Citizen and Rassadorn – following the March 1992 general election. The coup-maker’s return under democratic conditions ignited a mass protest that led to the infamous Black May of 1992, when soldiers opened fire on unarmed demonstrators, killing scores if not hundreds.

Despite the support pouring in for Prayut to take the job as an “outsider”, he can choose either to be an “invited outsider” or an elected premier.

Like others, Prayut may interpret the referendum result as an endorsement for extending his rule. But he cannot afford to ignore calls from political parties that he first run for election.

Declaring that you want to stay on as leader in a dignified way after democracy is restored, means you have to be elected by the people – not “invited” to take the top post.

Only the former course would be dignifying.

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