FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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New charter will see a revival of 1980s ‘Prem Model’ scenario, experts say

New charter will see a revival of 1980s ‘Prem Model’ scenario, experts say

FOLLOWING the endorsement of the charter draft in the August 7 referendum, Thailand’s new political landscape is increasingly reminiscent of 1980s politics in the country.

 It was then that a figure with “baramee” took the helm of the administration at the request of weakened House members who were vying for power.
A politician with baramee would possess a number of characteristics attributed to a good leader such as acceptability, honesty and integrity. They must also be admired and respected. 
The new constitution, which must be approved by the Constitutional Court next month, outlines a new electoral system, mixed-member apportionment, in which people vote only once and their votes are used to calculate the constituency MP and party-list MP seats at once.
As a result, changes to the parliamentary and administration landscapes are foreseen with no single party gaining a majority in the Lower House any more. Instead, there could be a power struggle that would pave the way for a person with baramee to lead the country.
Sukhum Nuansakul, a veteran political analyst and former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University, is among those who has observed this phenomenon closely. The senior scholar noted that as a result of the new electoral method, no party could form a strong government, and none of the elected parties would collaborate with one another to form a strong coalition government.
“The two major parties – the Democrats and Pheu Thai – would not be able to join forces. We won’t see such a big coalition,” he said. “The two opposition parties have different stances and different types of supporters. If they collaborated with each other, their own supporters would bombard them with criticism.”
Sukhum said politicians always want to be a part of the government, not be in the opposition. After this predicted deadlock, he said, small and medium-sized parties would emerge as the most powerful entities.
The unfolding political situation reminds the veteran analyst of the 1983 political climate, when parliament called for non-MP General Prem Tinsulanonda, the current Privy Council president, to serve a second consecutive term as premier.
Sukhum, who was Prem’s political adviser at the time, said after the 1983 election that some major and medium-sized parties, including the Democrats, the Social Action Party (Kij-Sang-Kom), the Thai Citizen’s Party (Prachakorn Thai), and the Chart Prachathippatai Party, supported the general prolonging his tenure. Sukhum said Chart Thai initially planned to form a government by taking the support of other parties. However, it did not win the premier race due to disharmony in the Lower House.
He said, it was the military-appointed Upper House, which the 1978 Constitution empowered to jointly select the premier, that hampered the party’s effort as it rather supported Prem from the beginning.
“Many political blocs then continuously came to Prem to offer him votes and support in a bid to get positions,” Sukhum recalled.
He said Senate has got similar powers under the new constitution. By approving the additional referendum question, voters have empowered the Senate to jointly select the premier at the first joint Parliament meeting for the first five years following the election.
Sukhum predicted that under the new charter, the junta-appointed Senate would definitely back Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who also heads the ruling National Council for Peace and Order. 
However, Sukhum believes it is unlikely Prayut will vie to remain premier straightaway, as he had often reiterated that he did not want to cling to power. Prayut, he said, would wait for an appropriate time to do so – when the joint Parliament calls for his return to ease a deadlock and lead the new government.
“This way, Prayut would be in a better position to claim legitimacy to enter the office,” Sukhum remarked.
If the future political outlook is indeed similar to the environment over three decades ago, Thai politics would see a lot of compromises in Parliament. The Lower House will have to come to terms with the power of the Upper House, remarked political academic Yutthaporn Issarachai, deputy rector of Sukhohai Thammathirat University.
Yutthaporn noted that elected MPs would have to yield to the united Senate in the coming Parliament as the constitutional draft gave the Upper House extensive power to supervise politicians and the Cabinet, despite having no role in nominating the premier from the outset. 
The academic also pointed out that the military would still be active in the next government because it believed that its mission was uncompleted.He said the NCPO seized power in 2014, citing as its mission the need to reform the country. However, the ongoing efforts to reform political parties and politicians had apparently not worked, he remarked. So, the junta wanted to continue its work as the country’s guardian.
 
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