THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
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Wall Street voting for Clinton and Republican Congress

Wall Street voting for Clinton and Republican Congress

New York - After an unpredictable and bitter campaign season, Wall Street is eyeing its preferred 2016 election outcome: a Hillary Clinton presidency offset by a Republican-controlled Congress.

Evidence of the market's clear inclination for a Clinton victory has been seen at key junctures in the race, such as when stock futures surged in the moments after the first presidential debate, which was widely seen as a win for the former secretary of state.

"The S&P 500 futures exploded higher," recalled Gregori Volokhine, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. "It was obvious which candidate the market prefers."

That preference also was on display in response to news about Clinton's email investigation, including Sunday, when stock futures spiked higher after the FBI cleared the Democratic candidate in the latest review of emails linked to her private server.

Analysts view Clinton as a known quantity who is likely to maintain many of the policies of President Barack Obama. In contrast, Republican Donald Trump is viewed as a wildcard with no public service record and a penchant for lambasting everything from free trade deals to the Federal Reserve to people who contradict him.

A surprise win by Trump, who has consistently trailed in the polls, could spur a sharp negative reaction Wednesday, although markets could steady after that.

"The big move would be caused just by the unknown of what he might do and the perception that he's volatile," said Michael Scanlon, managing director of Manulife Asset Management.

"Then the reason I temper that and say it would be short-lived is that we still have a government with checks and balances. It's not like he's being elected king or anything like that."

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