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Ageing population to be a drag on Thai share of World GDP: report

Feb 28. 2017
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By The Nation

Thailand is projected to become the world’s 25th-largest economy in 2050, and as emerging economy will overtake some of the advanced economies, but it will fall behind neighbouring Vietnam and the Philippines, a PwC report says.

Thailand could fall from 20th place in 2016 to 22nd in 2030 and to 25th in 2050, when its gross domestic product measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) is expected to be US$2.782 trillion.

This is one of the key findings in the latest report by PwC economists on the theme of the "World in 2050: The long view -- how will the global economic order change by 2050?"

The report presents projections of potential GDP growth up to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together account for around 85 per cent of global GDP. These projections are based on the latest update from a detailed long-term global growth model first developed by PwC in 2006.

Sira Intarakumthornchai, chief executive officer of PwC Thailand, said that the Kingdom faces a declining working-age population which is seen as a drag on growth compared to neighbouring countries.

Between 2016 and 2050, Thailand’s population growth will see an average contraction of 0.3 per cent. Other Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia will have an average population growth range of between 0.5 per cent and 1.1 per cent, the report shows.

“The impact of a declining, ageing population could significantly harm Thailand’s ability to increase its share of world GDP in a similar way to other countries such as South Korea, Russia andevenJapan,” Sira said.

“By 2050, Thailand’s global GDP ranking in PPP terms will be 25th, falling from 20th in 2016, whereas the Philippines will rise from 28th to 19th by 2050 and Vietnam will rank 20th in 2050, rising from 32nd last year.”

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