Junta orders ‘will continue to rein in citizens’ even if democracy returns

Heads of government offices, meanwhile, were called for a government briefing on changes that would occur at their offices following the charter promulgation.
Noted political academic Prinya Thaewanarumitkul said political processes would become clearer after the charter promulgation, including the enactment of the 10 necessary organic laws for a general election as well as the election date.
Prinya, an assistant professor at Thammasat University’s Faculty of Law, said the Constitution Drafting Commission would have eight months to complete the laws, four of which are necessary to hold the election. Taking into account the time the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) will spend deliberating on these laws, plus five months after the promulgation, the election could be held around September or October next year.
Prinya said at this point three political scenarios have emerged: A natural parliamentary process; some major parties joining NCPO representatives to form a government; and two major parties joining hands against NCPO cronies.
The professor suggested that the NCPO should allow parliamentary work after the charter promulgation to proceed naturally so that the country could have a chance to return to democracy with the least conflict.
Political observers believe the NCPO may want to prolong its hold on power by having representatives in the Lower House, in addition to its 250 appointed senators. Prinya said based on past records, no major party would win a majority. But the NCPO could win enough seats in Parliament to influence key decisions such as the selection and election of a prime minister, which needs two-thirds votes in Parliament. If the NCPO wished to control the Lower House, it may need to have either Pheu Thai or the Democrats to be on its side to back its appointed 250 senators. 
The other possibility is of these two major parties joining hands working together against the NCPO”s representatives. 
History shows that such hybrid formulas don’t work, as politicians would rather work against each other rather than cooperate, and the consequence is severe conflict, which spreads, he said.
Prinya suggested that the junta contemplate on the issue as the scenarios are already in sight.
“I understand that the NCPO may not have made any decision at this point but these are all paths that we can see now, which would affect future politics [selection of an outsider prime minister]. So, I think they should not get involved with the formation of a government and instead let the country’s free voters decide the future. This is the only way for the country to return to democracy with the least conflict,” said Prinya.
He said people should have a supreme rule – to live together. They should fix their own problems so that coups would have no chance in Thai society again.
Kitti Prasertsuk, director of the university’s East Asia Studies Institute, said the new charter may have helped send a positive signal to foreign countries but still they would rather wait and see when the election actually takes place before making their responses known. 
The assistant professor said the charter in general may be seen as not serving people’s rights as expected but he said individual parts need scrutiny. As far as commitment to foreign countries is concerned, he said this charter was more flexible and allowed the government to make commitments overseas, compared to the previous controversial Article190, which required strict scrutiny by Parliament.
Yingcheep Atchanont from ilaw said the new charter may restore some rights to the people but they would still be under the grip of hundreds of NCPO orders that would remain in place until there are regulations to abolish these orders. In addition, other mechanisms, including the NCPO, would continue until the country has a new government.
Some new proposals and mechanisms addressed in the charter, including the national strategy, reform, and others, were unclear as to the extent of public participation, he said.
Meanwhile, permanent secretaries and heads of all the government offices were called for a briefing on the changes that would occur in the bureaucratic administration.
Some critical laws that would lead to penalties being levied on them if they failed to incorporate into their work, including the public hearing law, and the anti corruption law, were notified to them so that they could prepare themselves for some drastic changes at their offices.