FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Future govts ‘will be wary of populist policies’ after action against ex-PM

Future govts ‘will be wary of populist policies’ after action against ex-PM

HARSH legal actions against former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her ex-ministers over her government’s rice-pledging scheme is likely to discourage future administrations from formulating such a large-scale populist policy, an economist has predicted.

Meanwhile, the local stock market is bracing for possible adverse impacts from the high-court verdict in the case against the ex-PM. The bourse’s management has assured that any effect on the financial markets will be short-term. 
Nada Chunsom, dean of the School of Development Economics at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said a guilty verdict in the legal case against Yingluck could adversely impact the next government’s policy on farm products. 
Yingluck is accused of negligence for irregularities stemming from her government’s project. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division on Political Office Holders is scheduled to read its verdict on August 25. Her former commerce minister and his deputy are among those indicted in another case also stemming from the project.
“I think the next government would be more careful on policy choices regarding the farm sector,” Nada said.
She noted that the next administration might |not opt for a large-scale populist policy similar to |the rice-pledging scheme, while a short-term market intervention may be still needed. 
The cost of the Yingluck administration’s price-shoring scheme was estimated to be about Bt500 billion. The Pheu Thai Party has countered that it could be much lower had the current government smartly managed a rice auction from the government stockpile of 18 million tonnes. 
Nada said that future policy might focus on farm insurance against weather factors such as flooding and drought rather than against volatility of market prices. The current government has laid out a 20-year strategy that emphasises fiscal discipline by future governments after the general election next year. 
The academic, however, was cautious that the next elected government might need to take into account demand from their political constituents, and that no one knows how politics would play out. 
Meanwhile, Stock Exchange of Thailand president Kesara Manchusree said yesterday that the Thai capital market was protected from any shock that might happen as a result of the verdict in Yingluck’s case.
Kesara said the stock market had been through many political upheavals in the past. Investors were now more mature and the stock market had tools to deal with the issue, she said. 
Foreign investors viewed the Thai capital market as attractive for long-term investment. Regardless of the court outcome, rumours or speculation would have only a short-term impact on the market, she said.
 

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