FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
nationthailand

Protests ‘not yet at boiling point’

Protests ‘not yet at boiling point’

WITH A series of demonstrations against the military-installed regime planned in the lead-up to the coup’s fourth anniversary in May, observers expect protesters to shake the junta to some degree but say it is unlikely they will topple it completely.

Veteran protest leader Weng Tojirakarn said the situation had not yet reached a “boiling point”, enough for the general public to take to the streets. The current movement, led by the younger generation and intellectuals, also faced a challenge on how to connect with the people, he said.
Pro-democracy scholar Anusorn Unno explained that the political context today differed from that during the 1973 protests, and the scale of the movement against the regime may not be able to match that of the past. But the current student-led movement was a good sign of “new politics without the colour codes” that could “get the junta trembling”, he said.
The remarks came following an announcement from pro-democracy activists that they would stage a series of demonstrations calling for an election, after the junta-appointed legislature passed a bill that could delay the promised poll by three months.
The protests naturally added fuel to the flames as the military-backed government has already been attacked on all fronts – from its poor administration to the recent watch scandal involving its second in command, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan.
Weng, a leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) that successfully led a large-scale demonstration of red shirts, said the junta was currently in bad shape. However, the climax that could lead to its end had yet to come.
“The NCPO [National Council for Peace and Order] is being bombarded today with many issues. The bread-and-butter problem is quietly undermining its government. People are enraged about Prawit’s watches. The election is being delayed indefinitely,” he said. “All these are building up public dissatisfaction. But still, we haven’t really reached the peak.”
Asked about the young activists, mostly university students, taking the lead in the movement for democracy, Weng said this was not uncommon. In Thai history, this role had always been one for scholars and students. “There are many things that still get in the way, obstructing this movement from growing to be as big as the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy, the red-shirt UDD, or the People’s Democratic Reform Committee,” he said. “Most importantly, the NCPO has taken strong measures against demonstrators. It’s hard for people to come out.”
However, Anusorn, who has played a major role in activities against the junta in the past couple of years, pointed out that the NCPO’s fear tactics may not really work.
“I think it has a reverse effect. As people get sued for marching for democracy, more people come out to show solidarity and to support us.”
But Anusorn said that the recent movement and the mass demonstrations in 1973 were not comparable. Back then there was no colour-coded politics and the people had a clear and common enemy, which was the dictator ruler. “While the movement may not drive the ruler out of the country, it does its job of informing the people that they are disrespected by a ruler who cannot be held accountable,” he said. 
Rangsiman Rome, the face of the young movement, said he did not know whether the demonstrations would work, or whether they could really drive the junta out of office. The activists would just focus on what they had to do each day, he said.
“In our group, we have just a handful of people working together. But last time we marched around the Democracy Monument, we saw around 1,500 participants,” he said. “And that was something.”
Rangsiman said he did not know whether the protests would be successful. However, he felt it was the young people’s job to come out and demand an election.
Meanwhile, NCPO spokesman Maj Gen Piyapong Klinphan said that the military was still working with good spirits, trying to keep peace and order. 
Business executives have warned that political uncertainty could have long-term consequences.
Kim Eng Tan, senior director, sovereign and international public finance ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said a delay in the election may not affect the country’s sovereign rating in the short run, but political uncertainty could have negative implications in the long term. “Political developments are not expected to affect the rating, but there are long-term consequences,” said Tan. S&P has assigned Thailand an investment grade rating of BBB+ with a stable outlook. 
Jen Namchaisiri, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, said foreign investors currently do not ask about the political situation in Thailand, but they are interested in the latest laws and regulations related to investment privileges. 
Anusorn Tamajai, dean of Rangsit University’s economics faculty, said some investors would postpone their investments as they were waiting for a clear picture of Thai politics. 
 

RELATED
nationthailand