Thai bonds may benefit from Brexit turmoil, says analyst
The rejection of British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan makes Thai bonds more attractive, says an analyst.
Thailand is still considered a safe haven as the kingdom's credit-default swap (CDS) rate is among the lowest in the world, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank.
One-year CDS is about 14 basis points, compared with UK CDS rate which is about 24 basis points. Brexit has caused investors to become increasingly risk averse, while Thailand becomes a destination for bond investors when there is fear, he added.
Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Centre says that the rejection of May's Brexit plan would have a short-term impact on the financial markets and uncertainty may lead to an economic slowdown in Britain that could affect Thailand’s exports.
However, economic ties between Thailand and Britain is not large. Thailand’s exports to Britain were only 1.7 per cent of total exports in 2017.
Kasikorn forecast that Thai exports to Britain would expand 1.8-2.1 per cent this year if Europe and Britain can resolve the Brexit issue in the first half of this year.