Bank of Russia delivers fifth rate cut, signals more easing

The bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, according to a statement published on Friday, taking the total reduction this year to 150 basis points. The move was forecast by 26 out of 33 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Four had predicted a hold and three expected a deeper move.

"If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of further key rate reduction in the first half of 2020," the bank said in the statement. "Disinflationary risks still exceed pro-inflationary risks over the short-term horizon."

At past meetings the central bank said it would consider further cuts "at one of the next meetings."

Governor Elvira Nabiullina will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. Moscow time.

The rate cuts have so far failed to stoke inflation, which fell well below the bank's 4% goal last month, while economic growth has also lagged behind the government's goals. Russian government bonds have attracted inflows of about $16 billion this year due to faster-than-expected easing.

What Our Economists Say:

"A subtle change in the guidance leaves the door open for further easing but signals a greater chance of a pause before the next move. We still think another cut will come early next year, but that's going to be data dependent," said Scott Johnson of Bloomberg Economics.

Russia is following central banks in Turkey and Ukraine in reducing borrowing costs this week after the Federal Reserve signaled it is in no rush to reverse its three recent rate cuts. Optimism about a trade deal between the U.S. and China is helping to create a rosier backdrop for emerging-market central bankers.

The ruble extended a rally after the rate decision, trading about 1% higher in line with most emerging-market currencies. Yields on 10-year government bonds declined 2 basis points to 6.4%.

Key insights:

- Annual inflation slowed to 3.4% as of Dec. 9, the central bank said. The Economy Ministry forecasts a further drop to 2.5%-2.7% as soon as January.

- Spending on a six-year government infrastructure program was meant to get underway this half, but bureaucrats have been cautious about releasing funds.

- Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned earlier this month that the central bank is underestimating the potential for price growth to slow dramatically and will come under pressure to revise down its 4% target.