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Working-age population decreasing: NESDC

Jan 15. 2020
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By The Nation

The working-age population will witness a downward trend, from 43.2 million to 36.5 million, with the rate of newborns at -0.2 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDC) said.

The NESDC forecasts that the Thai population will increase from 66.5 million to 67.2 million by 2028, but will then decrease by 0.2 per cent every year resulting in a population of 65.4 million in 2040.

The number of children (newborns to 14 years) is showing a decreasing trend. In 2020, children will number 11.2 million, or 16.9 per cent of the total population. In 2040, they will number 8.4 million, or 12.8 per cent of the total population.

Seniors (aged 60 or above) will number 12 million, or 18 per cent of the total population in 2020. The NESDB forecasts that the senior population will reach 20.42 million, or 31.28 per cent of the total population in 2040.

The number of working-age people (15-59 years) will also see a decrease – from 43.26 million, or 65 per cent, in 2020 to 36.5 million, or 56 per cent in 2040, while the ratio of working-age to senior people is expected to decrease, from 3.6 workers to 1 senior in 2020 to 1.8 workers to 1 senior in 2040.

In 2020, women will have an average life expectancy of 80.4 years and men 73.2 years, and in 2040 the average for both women and men will increase to 83.2 years and 76.8 years, respectively, resulting in women outnumbering men due to longevity. It is predicted that by 2040, the elderly males-to-females ratio will be 71 males to 100 females aged 60 and over, and 41 males to 100 females aged 80 and older.

In 2083, Bangkok will have the highest proportion of working-age population, while the northern region will have the most elderly population, but the South is expected to see a higher proportion of young population than other regions.

The eastern region has the highest population growth of 5.3 per cent per year, especially the three provinces of Chachoengsao, Chon Buri and Rayong, which are part of the Eastern Economic Corridor special development zone.

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