SET Index expected to move sideways downwards after NESDC cuts GDP forecast

The SET Index yesterday (February 17) fluctuated between 1,523 and 1,532 points since the NESDC revealed that Thailand’s fourth-quarter GDP was the lowest in 21 quarters of 1.6 per cent and cut the economic forecast to 1.5-2.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the index gained support from ICT stock buying due to the 5G spectrum band auction.
Foreign investors made a net sell of Bt1.11 billion for seven consecutive days, while there were 7,501 long-term S50 Futures contracts.
Senior Tisco Securities strategist Apichat Poobunjirdkul said global stock trading yesterday was very quiet as US stock markets were closed for Presidents’ Day, while European stocks rose about 0.3 per cent after China’s central bank injected loans of 200 billion yuan (Bt892 billion) into commercial banks and cut the interest rate by 0.10 per cent to 3.15 per cent.
“We expect the SET Index to move sideways downwards since Apple expects Q1 sales this year to be lower compared to last year, while China’s production capacity is recovering slowly, which has caused declining demand, and there’s also the impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, which has caused uncertainty for the economy and profits of listed companies.”
He said Tisco has cut the GDP forecast from 2.6 per cent to 1.7 per cent due to a big drop in foreign tourist arrivals and declining domestic consumption, private sector investment, and exports. 
“We believe the market will react the same way,” he said, “while profit forecasts are expected to fall from 3 per cent year-to-date after listed companies announce their Q4 2019 performances this month.”
He suggested that investors find an opportunity to trade in the short term since the SET Index is recovering, adding that investors should wait and see if the index falls below 1,515 points. 
His outstanding picks for February are AP, EASTW, ERW, KKP, RBF and Tasco.