Thursday, August 13, 2020

Short-term weakening of the baht likely due to outflow of capital

Jul 08. 2020
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The baht opened at 31.22 to the US dollar on Wednesday morning (July 8), strengthening from Tuesday’s close of 31.26.
The Thai currency is expected to move between 31.15 and 31.35 on Wednesday, said Jitipol Puksamatanan, head of Markets Strategy at SCB Securities.

The market on Tuesday night again returned to the ‘risk-off’ state due to concerns about the Covid-19 situation in the US, which pressured investors to sell technology stocks. The stocks of hotel and airlines were expected to be impacted the most in this situation.

The S&P 500 decreased by 1.08 per cent, while the US Ten-Year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 0.64 per cent, while gold rose to $1,807 per ounce, the first time it has achieved that level since 2011.

Prices of houses in the US have fallen by 6.6 per cent, compared to the same period last year.

New jobs in the market increased from 5 million last month to 5.4 million, pointing to several businesses recovering.

In the financial market, the dollar has again become a safe-haven asset, and strengthened by 0.3 per cent on Tuesday night, compared to other main currencies. Also, Asian currencies weakened due to the market situation.

In the short term, capital would flow from Thailand to other countries, weakening the baht.

In the middle term, the strategist said that investors would not be relaxed about the present economic recovery unless the spread of the virus, especially in the US, was controlled within the third quarter.

If the virus crisis were not resolved in this quarter, investors would be pressured not to invest in risk assets, he added.


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