TAT targets 11 million long-haul tourists in 2027 despite rising costs

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is targeting 11 million long-haul international visitors and THB730 billion in tourism revenue in 2027, despite rising oil prices, prolonged conflict in the Middle East and economic pressures affecting European travellers.

Chiravadee Khunsub, TAT deputy governor for international marketing covering Europe, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, expects the long-haul market to maintain its growth momentum next year, with an anticipated expansion of approximately 4%.

For 2026, TAT has maintained its original target of 10.7 million long-haul visitors and THB690 billion in revenue, despite geopolitical disruption in the Middle East and cost-of-living protests across several European cities.

Chiravadee indicated that arrivals could slightly exceed the target, reaching approximately 10.77 million by the end of the year.

Although the Middle East has experienced a decline in visitor numbers, other long-haul markets have benefited from additional direct flights to Thailand.

European carriers, including Lufthansa Group airlines, are also looking to strengthen their aviation hubs and expand services to Asia, offering travellers more destination choices while competing with established Middle Eastern hubs.

Europe's aviation network includes major hubs across countries such as Germany, Italy and Denmark, creating further opportunities for connections to Asian destinations.

Rising airfares could affect bookings in 2027

Chiravadee identified energy prices as a significant challenge for Thailand's long-haul tourism market next year.

Oil prices could rise further as international travel demand increases during the winter holiday season, potentially pushing airfares higher.

The additional costs may weaken advance bookings during the second and third quarters of 2027, a period when Thailand aims to attract more long-haul visitors.

European travellers could instead opt for holidays within their own region if the cost of travelling to Asia becomes less competitive.

Other concerns include economic conditions across Europe and exchange-rate movements in competing destinations such as Japan and Vietnam, where currency advantages could make tourism products and services more affordable than those in Thailand.

These pressures are expected to intensify competition for international visitors, making air connectivity and the overall value of travel experiences increasingly important.

Three strategies to strengthen long-haul demand

TAT has outlined three principal strategies to stimulate demand in long-haul markets throughout 2027.

The first focuses on strengthening engagement with travel industry intermediaries, including tour operators and travel agents.

Chiravadee explained that many long-haul travellers continue to book their holidays through intermediaries, making closer cooperation with these businesses important for increasing both visitor numbers and tourism revenue.

The second strategy involves expanding commercial partnerships to provide travellers with more booking options and encourage advance travel planning.

Promotional initiatives such as the Book Now, Travel Later campaign will form part of efforts to stimulate demand.

The third strategy concentrates on improving awareness of Thailand's tourism destinations, particularly as travellers increasingly use artificial intelligence tools to search for information and plan their holidays.

TAT intends to make information about destinations across Thailand more accessible through these emerging search channels.

Overseas offices tasked with promoting secondary destinations

Alongside the three strategies, TAT plans to expand its reach into secondary cities in long-haul source markets while strengthening partnerships with airlines.

The objective is to encourage year-round travel to Thailand and distribute international visitors more widely across the country.

Chiravadee has assigned overseas TAT offices to develop stronger promotional connections with selected secondary destinations in Thailand.

Under the initiative, the Paris office will focus on Ubon Ratchathani, while the London and Moscow offices will promote Phang Nga.

The Rome office will be linked with Chiang Rai and Trang, and the Frankfurt office with Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Meanwhile, TAT offices in the Americas and the Middle East will promote destinations including Nakhon Ratchasima, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chiang Rai, Phang Nga, Phrae, Nan and Krabi.

The approach is intended to broaden Thailand's appeal beyond established tourism centres while encouraging international visitors to explore different regions throughout the year.

Saudi arrivals fall sharply after Riyadh airport attacks

The Middle East remains the most challenging long-haul source market following the escalation of regional conflict.

Chiravadee reported that Saudi Arabian visitor arrivals fell by almost 40% year on year following aerial attacks and explosions at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh during October.

The disruption contributed to the Middle East becoming the only long-haul regional market recording a decline in arrivals to Thailand.

TAT expects between 600,000 and 700,000 visitors from the Middle East in 2026, approximately 200,000 fewer than the more than 800,000 recorded in 2025.

Saudi Arabia had previously been regarded as one of Thailand's most promising growth markets because of its strong potential to generate additional international tourism demand.

However, the attacks forced Riyadh's airport to suspend operations, disrupting international services and prompting airlines to cancel flights.

Although the airport partially resumed operations on October 25, several carriers have extended cancellations until late 2026 or early 2027.

The disruption has also temporarily halted 10 weekly direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok.

Nevertheless, some travel connections from Saudi Arabia remain available.

Saudia continues to operate nine direct flights a week between Jeddah and Bangkok, helping maintain part of the visitor flow to Thailand.

Gulf carriers retain capacity for eventual recovery

Other Middle Eastern carriers, including Emirates and flydubai, have maintained their flight slots despite the regional disruption.

According to Chiravadee, the retained schedules represent more than 13,471 flights and capacity exceeding four million seats.

She indicated that the airlines had not withdrawn their aircraft and were prepared to resume operations once conditions allowed.

The availability of this capacity is expected to support the eventual recovery of travel demand from the region.

TAT expects Middle East decline to ease

The impact of the Middle East conflict was particularly severe during the first five months of 2026, when visitor arrivals from the region fell by approximately 30%.

In response, TAT adjusted its marketing strategy to restore confidence among potential travellers.

The agency's governor travelled to the region to conduct media briefings, while TAT also invited representatives of high-end media outlets and influencers targeting affluent consumers to participate in promotional activities.

Chiravadee reported that arrivals recovered rapidly after May, increasing from just over 200,000 to approximately 500,000.

TAT expects the figure to reach between 600,000 and 700,000 by the end of 2026.

Despite the disruption, Chiravadee expressed hope that the Middle East market's annual decline could narrow to no more than 6%, compared with the approximately 30% contraction recorded during January–May.

The agency will continue strengthening air connectivity, working with travel industry partners and promoting a wider range of Thai destinations as it pursues its 2027 long-haul tourism targets.